Industrials · Rental & Leasing Services · NYSE · United States
$1098.88-1.09%
Market cap $69.2BNext earnings 2026-10-21Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 50% above our fair value
Price
$1098.88
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$735
Model range
$354 to $1076
Fair value $735
Price $1099
4 models fit United Rentals Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 4 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Bronze55
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionUnited Rentals Inc. Common Stock (URI)
Fair value (4 models)
$735
ACCE price target
$1143
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 23 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST; previously $791 since 18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 22 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST; previously $1032 since 19 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST.
Price used: $1099 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
49.5% above
-33.1% to fair value
ACCE score
69
out of 100
Analysts
73% buy
22 covering
P/E
25.7x
forward 18.5x
1-year return
+20.2%
Dividend yield
0.00%
United Rentals Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
United Rentals rents construction and industrial equipment, from aerial lifts and excavators to power tools and pumps, to contractors and enterprises on daily, weekly, and monthly terms. The company operates roughly 1,400 locations across North America and Europe, with a fleet exceeding 3.5 million assets. Its competitive moat sits in scale: the fixed cost of maintaining a distributed network of yards and technicians means smaller competitors cannot match URI's unit economics or equipment availability across geographies. Construction spending remains elevated despite recent rate hikes, and the company benefits from a secular shift toward renting rather than owning equipment, which reduces customer capex and improves URI's revenue visibility. The stock trades at 18.4x forward earnings while generating 28.9% ROE and 26% operating margins, metrics that reflect both the quality of the business and the durability of its cash generation. Near-term upside hinges on whether the company can sustain pricing power as utilization rates stabilize and whether M&A (the company has been disciplined but active) continues to drive accretion.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Earnings miss in latest quarter
Q4 2026 EPS came in 15.4% below the consensus surprise baseline, the one clear negative in an otherwise strong print. Worth watching whether this repeats.
moderate
Stock trades well above model fair value
Price sits 49.5% above the model fair value of $734.82, so the valuation leans heavily on the ACCE price target of $1143.00 being achieved.
moderate
Leverage elevated at 1.84x
Debt/Equity of 1.84 is high for a capital-intensive rental business, though free cash flow of $662M gives meaningful room to service it.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 24, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-23 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 11.8% over the past year, ahead of the 13.5% yearly average of the last five years, showing demand has held up.
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $662M, and the diluted share count fell 3.0% last year, returning value to owners.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 19.2x, below the sector median of 21.7x, and 73% of analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy.
Why it could disappoint
The share price of $1098.88 sits 49.5% above the model fair value of $734.82, and four of five valuation models sit in that consensus.
Debt is 1.84 times equity, and free cash flow of $662M is only a 1.0% yield on the market value, leaving little room if a downturn hits.
The latest quarter's earnings per share missed expectations, coming in at 11.70 against 13.83 expected, a 15.4% shortfall.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Walk me through this stock
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where URI's valuation models land
Price
$1098.88
Model fair value
$735
Model range
$354 to $1076
Fair value $735
Price $1099
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores