3 models fit U-Haul Holding Company Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
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Valued as a mature, profitable company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionU-Haul Holding Company Common Stock (UHAL)
Fair value (3 models)
$42.96
ACCE price target
$52.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST; previously $44.73 since 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST.
Price used: $55.66 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
29.6% above
-22.8% to fair value
ACCE score
40
out of 100
Analysts
100% buy
1 covering
P/E
405.7x
forward 56.2x
1-year return
+0.6%
Dividend yield
0.00%
U-Haul Holding Company Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
U-Haul Holding rents trucks, trailers and self-storage units to do-it-yourself movers through its own company-owned network of depots, which makes it one of the few national truck rental operators that also owns the real estate and storage space behind the business. Its moat is that scale and owned fleet density in local markets are hard to replicate, and the storage business adds a recurring revenue stream that is less sensitive to moving season. The obvious near-term driver is the housing and moving cycle: with revenue growing 3.2% and an operating margin of 15.1%, the upside case rests on rental rates and storage occupancy holding up rather than on any new product. The reason to look now is valuation against earnings: the stock trades at 410x trailing earnings but 56x forward, meaning the market is pricing a sharp earnings recovery, and ROE of 0.8% shows how little of that recovery has reached shareholders so far. The score of 40/100 and absence from any major index mean the name sits well outside the consensus screens, so the deeper work is whether the forward earnings gap closes.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Free cash flow deeply negative
FCF of $-1,359,741,000 against a $10.8B market cap is a large cash drain, and debt/equity of 1.07 leaves little room to absorb it.
moderate
Earnings falling despite revenue growth
Revenue grew 3.2% year over year, but earnings fell 13.5%, and the quarter-on-quarter drop of 17.7% points to margin pressure. Net margin is only 1.1%.
moderate
Heavy short interest
Short interest stands at 17.6% of float, a level that signals meaningful bearish positioning among sellers.
moderate
Price running ahead of valuation
The stock trades 29.6% above the model fair value of $42.96, and 7.0% above the ACCE price target of $52.00.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 20, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 3.2% over the past year and has averaged 5.9% a year over five years, showing steady demand for the business.
Every analyst covering the stock rates it Buy or Strong Buy, and their mean price target sits 57.6% above the current share price.
Forward earnings are expected to be strong, with the forward P/E at 26.7x and the sector median at 23.8x, so the premium is a bet on growth.
Why it could disappoint
Free cash flow over the last 12 months was negative $1.4B, meaning the business spent more cash than it generated.
Net margin of 1.1% and return on equity of 0.8% leave very little profit for each dollar of sales or shareholder capital.
The stock trades 29.6% above the model fair value of $42.96, and the latest quarter missed earnings estimates by 31.8%.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 4, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where UHAL's valuation models land
Price
$55.66
Model fair value
$42.96
Model range
$19.40 to $76.62
Fair value $42.96
Price $55.66
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
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Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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