Industrials · Rental & Leasing Services · NYSE · United States
$270.90+2.02%
Market cap $10.4BNext earnings 2026-10-22Updated Oct 24, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 14% below our fair value
Price
$270.90
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$315
Model range
$117 to $772
Fair value $315
Price $271
5 models fit Ryder System Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 5 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Discount(i)Silver74
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionRyder System Inc. Common Stock (R)
Fair value (5 models)
$315
ACCE price target
$211
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 24 Oct 2026, 16:06 CEST; previously $334 since 23 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST.
Price used: $271 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
13.9% below
+16.1% to fair value
ACCE score
62
out of 100
Analysts
73% buy
11 covering
P/E
20.6x
forward 14.9x
1-year return
+69.1%
Dividend yield
1.52%
Ryder System Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Ryder System rents and leases commercial trucks and tractors, runs dedicated contract logistics for shippers, and operates a fleet maintenance network, with most of its earnings coming from multi-year lease contracts rather than one-off truck sales. Its edge is the installed base: a large, specialised fleet and service footprint that customers are reluctant to switch away from, which gives it recurring cash flow through freight cycles. Revenue growth of 5.0% and a 16.7% return on equity suggest the lease book is compounding, though the 8.5% operating margin leaves little room for error. The stock trades at 19.4 times trailing earnings and 23.1 times forward, so the forward multiple implies the market expects earnings to dip before they recover. At a 61/100 score with no index membership, this is a mid-cap industrial that merits a deeper look mainly to test whether the forward earnings recovery is priced in.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
High leverage ratio
Debt/Equity of 2.84 is elevated for an asset-heavy lessor, so rising rates or a weak freight cycle would squeeze equity holders harder than the sector average.
moderate
Slowing topline growth
Revenue grew 5.0% year over year and 8.5% over five years, and the latest quarter printed -1.5% QoQ, so momentum is cooling.
moderate
Thin net margin
Net margin of 3.9% against an operating margin of 8.5% leaves little cushion if interest costs or fleet expenses rise.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $459M, and the stock's free cash flow yield stands at 5.0%.
Revenue has grown at an average of +8.5% per year over five years, and the latest year still delivered +5.0%.
Analysts' mean price target of $288.33 sits +21.0% above the current share price, and 73% of analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy.
Why it could disappoint
The stock trades 13.9% below the model fair value of $314.56, which may reflect real doubts about its cash flow durability.
Debt to equity of 2.84 is high, and return on invested capital of 3.5% is thin against a 5.2% risk-free rate.
The share price already implies cash flow growth of +8.9% a year forever, and net margin is only 3.9%.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where R's valuation models land
Price
$270.90
Model fair value
$315
Model range
$117 to $772
Fair value $315
Price $271
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
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