2 models fit Upwork Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average. The price is below every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large discount(i)Silver60
Valued as a growth company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionUpwork Inc. Common Stock (UPWK)
Fair value (2 models)
$17.69
ACCE price target
$9.00
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 20 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST; previously $13.30 since 30 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 13 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 20 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST.
Price used: $9.48 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
46.4% below
+86.6% to fair value
ACCE score
50
out of 100
Analysts
30% buy
10 covering
P/E
11.3x
forward 5.5x
1-year return
-41.2%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Upwork Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Upwork runs an online marketplace where freelancers and businesses find and pay each other for project and hourly work, earning take-rate fees on that spend. The platform is high-margin, with a 77.2% gross margin and a 21.8% operating margin, and a 16.7% ROE, which is a profile most marketplaces never reach. The problem is the top line: revenue is shrinking at 1.7%, so the margin story currently rests on cost discipline rather than volume. At a trailing P/E of 11.2 and a forward P/E of 5.5, the market is pricing in a continued decline, which makes the stock worth a deeper look only if you have a view on whether gross services volume stabilises. The 50/100 score reflects that tension between cash generation and a shrinking revenue base.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Revenue and earnings declining
Revenue fell 1.7% year over year and earnings fell 15.9%, with a further 2.0% quarter-on-quarter drop. Five-year revenue CAGR of 16.1% no longer reflects the current trend.
moderate
Elevated short interest
Short interest stands at 21.5%, a large share of the float that signals meaningful bearish positioning and could amplify volatility.
moderate
Score down five points in 90 days
The ACCE score slipped from 55 to 50 over 90 days, with the growth component at 7 out of 100 and momentum at 17 out of 100.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 14, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $242M, a large cash stream against a share price of $8.64.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 6.3x, against a sector median forward P/E of 16.8x.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue fell 1.7% year over year, well below its five-year average growth of 16.1% a year.
Only 30% of analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, with just 3 of 10 in favour.
The latest quarter missed expectations, with earnings per share of 0.20 against 0.34 expected, a 41.2% shortfall.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 2, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where UPWK's valuation models land
Price
$9.48
Model fair value
$17.69
Model range
$11.31 to $25.34
Fair value $17.69
Price $9.48
The price is below the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores