Hemnet Group AB (publ) (HEM.ST) fair value

ACCE thesis

Hemnet runs Sweden's dominant online property marketplace, where estate agents list homes and buyers search, and its revenue is mostly subscription fees paid by brokers. The moat is network effects: the site draws the most buyers, so agents pay to be there, which keeps gross margin at 84.1% and operating margin at 40.2%. Revenue fell 23.1% year on year, so the investment case rests on a recovery in Swedish housing transactions and on whether listing volumes and pricing hold up as that cycle turns. The stock trades at 19.3x trailing earnings but 10.1x forward, a gap that implies analysts expect a sharp earnings rebound. A 39.6% ROE and high margins are attractive, but the cyclical revenue decline is the central question, and it merits a deeper look at broker churn, pricing power, and the timing of a Swedish housing recovery before any position is considered.