4 models fit CarGurus Inc. Class A Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionCarGurus Inc. Class A Common Stock (CARG)
Fair value (4 models)
$34.17
ACCE price target
$36.00
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 24 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST; previously $39.65 since 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 24 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST.
Price used: $31.52 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
7.7% below
+8.4% to fair value
ACCE score
72
out of 100
Analysts
69% buy
13 covering
P/E
16.8x
forward 10.4x
1-year return
-13.0%
Dividend yield
0.00%
CarGurus Inc. Class A Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
CarGurus runs an online automotive marketplace in the US, UK and Canada, where its core product is a dealer-listing platform and a pricing tool that rates each vehicle listing against comparable local sales. Its moat is the data behind that tool: a long history of transaction and listing data that dealers pay to access and that is hard for a new entrant to replicate quickly. The business has become unusually profitable for a marketplace, with a 92.4% gross margin and a 25.3% operating margin on 13.1% revenue growth. At 8.5 times forward earnings against 16.1 times trailing, the market is pricing in a meaningful drop in the earnings base, so the question for a PM is whether that expectation is too pessimistic given the margin structure. The name is outside the major indices, which may explain part of the discount, and it merits a deeper look at dealer-subscription trends and buyback capacity before any view is formed.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Heavy short interest
Short interest sits at 18.2% of shares, a large bet against the stock that could amplify volatility on any earnings miss.
moderate
Margin profile below growth
Operating margin of 25.3% and net margin of 18.2% are solid, but the market already prices the stock near $36.00 with revenue growing only 13.1% YoY.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 21, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-16 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow of $289M over the last twelve months gives the company real cash to fund growth and buybacks.
The forward P/E of 8.5x sits well below the sector median forward P/E of 17.0x, suggesting the market expects weaker earnings.
The company cut its diluted share count by 8.9% last fiscal year, lifting each shareholder's stake without any new investment.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue growth of 13.1% in the latest year still trails the 11.2% per year average, leaving little evidence of acceleration.
The price implies yearly cash flow growth of -5.1% over the next five years, which signals the market already expects decline.
The stock trades 7.7% below the model fair value of $34.17, yet is 12.4% below the ACCE price target of $36.00, so the discount is not uniform across our measures.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 5, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where CARG's valuation models land
Price
$31.52
Model fair value
$34.17
Model range
$12.34 to $57.38
Fair value $34.17
Price $31.52
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
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