Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
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Valued as a loss-making company: Sales comps and Analyst consensus.
ACCE opinionStubHub Holdings Inc. Class A Common Stock (STUB)
Fair value (2 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$6.10
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $5.85 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Analyst consensus and Sales comps.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
46
out of 100
Analysts
57% buy
14 covering
1-year return
-69.5%
Dividend yield
0.00%
StubHub Holdings Inc. Class A Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
StubHub runs a secondary ticket marketplace for live events, where it earns fees on resold tickets for concerts, sports and theatre, and its gross margin of 82.1% reflects a model that carries little inventory. Revenue is growing 33.2%, and the operating margin of 3.4% suggests that growth is beginning to reach the bottom line, though the negative 103% return on equity shows the company has not yet built a conventional earnings base. The forward P/E of 13.6 against a trailing P/E that is not meaningful indicates the market is pricing in a sharp swing to profitability, so the key question for a PM is whether the margin expansion can persist as volumes scale. At a 2.2 billion dollar market cap, with no index membership and a 48/100 score, this is a small, thinly covered name where the thesis rests on execution rather than on a proven earnings track record, and it merits a deeper look on margin trajectory and cash generation before any position is considered.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Margins not converting to profit
Gross margin is 82.1% and operating margin 3.4%, yet net margin is -91.3% and ROE -103.0%. Earnings YoY is flat at 4.1%, so revenue growth of 33.2% is not reaching shareholders.
moderate
Elevated short interest
Short interest sits at 11.5% of float, a meaningful bearish positioning figure that can amplify moves in either direction.
moderate
Quarter-on-quarter revenue slipped
Revenue fell 4.0% QoQ even though it is up 33.2% year on year, suggesting the growth rate may be decelerating.
moderate
Weak quality and momentum scores
The ACCE quality sub-score is 48 and the momentum sub-score is 17, against a composite of 46/100, so the stock screens poorly on the factors that drive it.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 23, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 33.2% year over year in the latest 10-Q, showing the business is still expanding quickly.
StubHub generated $191M of free cash flow over the last twelve months, so the operations bring in real cash.
Analysts' mean price target of $10.54 sits 72.8% above the current share price, and 57% of analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy.
Why it could disappoint
The company lost money heavily, with a net margin of -91.3% in the latest 10-Q, far from profitable.
Latest earnings per share came in at 0.02 against 0.07 expected, a 71.4% miss that worries investors about forecasts.
The diluted share count rose 6.3% last fiscal year, so each share now represents a smaller slice of the company.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 10, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where STUB's valuation models land
Price
$5.85
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $8.14
Model
Fair value
Upside
Analyst consensus
Sales comps
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores