3 models fit Red Rock Resorts Inc. Class A Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
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Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionRed Rock Resorts Inc. Class A Common Stock (RRR)
Fair value (3 models)
$36.61
ACCE price target
$50.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 19 Oct 2026, 19:04 CEST; previously $24.39 since 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 19 Oct 2026, 19:04 CEST.
Price used: $49.61 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
35.5% above
-26.2% to fair value
ACCE score
50
out of 100
Analysts
89% buy
18 covering
P/E
17.5x
forward 12.9x
1-year return
-19.3%
Dividend yield
2.06%
Red Rock Resorts Inc. Class A Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Red Rock Resorts runs a cluster of casino and hotel properties concentrated in Las Vegas, anchored by Red Rock Casino, Resort & Spa and the Station Casinos locals-focused brand, with a slot-route and gaming-machine business that provides a steady base of recurring revenue. The competitive edge is its locals market: a dense, loyal customer base in the Las Vegas Valley that is less exposed to tourist volatility than Strip operators, supported by a loyalty program and a network of neighborhood properties that few rivals can replicate. The near-term driver is the Las Vegas Strip-adjacent and regional expansion pipeline, along with the pace at which the company converts its operating margin into free cash flow. Revenue fell 3.0% over the last reported period, so the thesis rests on margin durability rather than top-line growth, with a 26.7% operating margin and a 67.2% gross margin that sit well above what most consumer cyclicals earn. At 17.8 times trailing earnings and 16.3 times forward, the stock is priced for modest growth, and the 108.9% ROE is inflated by a leveraged balance sheet, so the leverage needs checking before the margin story can be trusted. The score of 50 out of 100 and the absence of index membership make this a name for a deeper look at debt and cash generation, not a conclusion.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings falling faster than revenue
Earnings are down 29.3% year on year while revenue fell 3.0%, so the bottom line is deteriorating faster than sales. The ACCE score has dropped from 64 to 48 over 90 days, mostly on the momentum leg (M:17).
moderate
Insider selling with no buying
Insiders disclosed $10.13M of sales and no purchases across the last 10 filings. Insider ownership is 9.7%, so the selling is modest in scale but one-directional.
moderate
Elevated short interest
Short interest stands at 13.2% of float, a meaningful bet against the shares that could add volatility if sentiment shifts.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 19, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-19 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $289M, and the stock yields 5.7% on that cash flow.
Return on invested capital of 57.9% and a 0.28 debt to equity ratio suggest the business earns strong returns without heavy borrowing.
Analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy at 89%, and their mean price target sits 46.8% above the current share price.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue fell 3.0% year over year, breaking a 5-year average growth rate of 11.2% per year.
The consensus model fair value of $36.61 sits 35.5% below the share price, and only 3 of 4 valuation models are included.
At a 5.1% risk-free rate, the price implies 7.8% yearly cash flow growth forever, a demanding assumption for a business with falling revenue.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 3, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where RRR's valuation models land
Price
$49.61
Model fair value
$36.61
Model range
$18.57 to $70.01
Fair value $36.61
Price $49.61
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores