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BYD

Boyd Gaming Corporation Common Stock (BYD) fair value

Consumer Cyclical · Resorts & Casinos · NYSE · United States
$71.69-0.80%
Market cap $5.2BNext earnings 2026-10-22Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 43% below our fair value
Price
$71.69
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$126
Model range
$90.07 to $152
Fair value $126
Price $71.69
3 models fit Boyd Gaming Corporation Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is below every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large discount(i)Bronze48
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionBoyd Gaming Corporation Common Stock (BYD)
Fair value (3 models)
$126
ACCE price target
$82.00
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $108 since 2 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST.
Price used: $71.69 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
43.0% below
+75.5% to fair value
ACCE score
52
out of 100
Analysts
37% buy
19 covering
P/E
3.1x
forward 9.4x
1-year return
-15.6%
Dividend yield
1.11%

Boyd Gaming Corporation Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Boyd Gaming runs regional casinos across Nevada, Illinois, Louisiana, Pennsylvania and other states, with the Stardust and Cannery brands in Las Vegas and a growing online and sports-betting arm through FanDuel's partnership structure. Its real edge is a concentrated, licensed footprint in locally regulated markets where new gaming licenses are scarce, which makes its properties hard to replicate. The headline numbers look unusually cheap, with a trailing P/E of 3.1 and a forward P/E of 8.4, but the 93.1% ROE is inflated by a thin equity base carrying heavy debt, and revenue growth is flat at 0.0%. The case worth testing is whether the 20.9% operating margin holds as sports-betting economics mature and whether the market is mispricing a leveraged regional operator at this multiple. Without a near-term catalyst in the data, this is a balance-sheet and cash-flow review first, and a valuation argument second.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Earnings and revenue stalling
    Revenue growth is 0.0% year over year and earnings fell 4.9%, with QoQ down 6.1%. The 5y revenue CAGR of 13.4% describes a past that has stopped.
  • high
    Insider selling without buying
    Last 10 disclosed insider trades total $15.82M in sales and $0.00M in buys. Insiders hold 32.0% of the company and have not bought.
  • moderate
    Leverage above one times equity
    Debt to equity is 1.04. Net margin of 44.3% and ROE of 93.1% look strong partly because equity is thin, so earnings quality deserves a closer look.
  • moderate
    Score down sharply in 90 days
    The ACCE score fell 17 points from 67 to 50 over 90 days. Momentum (M:17) is the weakest component, consistent with the stalling growth above.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $388M, a clear sign the business is generating real cash.
  • Net margin of 44.3% and return on equity of 93.1% show a highly profitable business that turns sales into earnings efficiently.
  • The diluted share count fell 12.5% last fiscal year, so each remaining share now owns a bigger slice of the company.
Why it could disappoint
  • Revenue grew 0.0% year over year, well below its 13.4% five-year average, so top-line momentum has stalled.
  • Debt to equity of 1.04 leaves the company carrying meaningful borrowings, which limits its room to absorb a downturn.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

PRO

Ask ACCE

Valuation

INVESTOR
Where BYD's valuation models land
Price
$71.69
Model fair value
$126
Model range
$90.07 to $152
Fair value $126
Price $71.69
The price is below the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bearish37% buy · 19 covering analysts
● Strong buy 7● Buy 0● Hold 12● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
Do politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+2.4%
1 month
-0.1%
3 months
-17.6%
6 months
-14.5%
YTD
-15.9%
1 year
-15.6%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CESTRatingUndervaluedfirst publication$70.04
11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$82.00first publication$68.93
10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$125$108$70.00
2 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$108$111$66.57
29 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$111$113$71.23
21 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$113$114$72.97
18 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$114$117$75.60
10 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$117$118$76.52
5 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$118$121$77.79
31 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$121$123$79.47

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth7Value92Quality83Momentum25Total52
Valuation
Trailing P/E
3.1x
Forward P/E
9.4x
PEG
no data
P/B
2.08x
EV / Revenue
2.0x
Book value/sh
$34.20
Enterprise value
$8.1B
Profitability
ROE
93.1%
FCF yield
7.40%
ROIC
28.4%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
1.04
Dividend yield
1.11%
Beta
1.13

Price

-9.0% · 1Y

Ask anything about BYD

Answered from Boyd Gaming Corporation Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 80% of peers
low 0.0x3.1xhigh 35.3x
ROEbetter than 83% of peers
low -561%93%high 109%
Div yieldbetter than 33% of peers
low 0.0%1.1%high 6.0%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
BYD Boyd Gaming Corporation Common Stock$71.69$12643% below3.1x93.1%8352
MTN Vail Resorts Inc. Common Stock$148.23$9753% above35.3x26.0%5248
RRR Red Rock Resorts Inc. Class A Common Stock$50.43$3738% above17.5x108.9%9450
CZR Caesars Entertainment Inc. Common Stock$29.07----10.4%3854
VAC Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Common Stock$112.93----14.7%4262
WYNN Wynn Resorts Limited Common stock$75.13$6221% above17.6x-560.6%5053
MGM MGM Resorts International Common Stock$29.50$3414% below18.2x18.9%5250

Sector report card

Where BYD ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • PR Newswire•Aug 12, 2026
    Boyd Group Services Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results
  • Business Wire•Aug 3, 2026
    Bally's Corporation Completes Acquisition of Sam's Town Shreveport
  • Business Wire•Apr 30, 2026
    ZCG-Backed Apex Hospitality’s Daily Racing Form Expands Print Distribution Through Agreements with American Wagering and Boyd Gaming
40 filings
August 2026
Aug 26
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-08-24
View on SEC →
Aug 13
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-08-13
View on SEC →
July 2026
Jul 30
10-QQuarterly reportPeriod 2026-06-30
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR