Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
12.0% below
+13.7% to fair value
ACCE score
74
out of 100
P/E
14.2x
forward 13.7x
1-year return
+17.7%
Dividend yield
3.83%
Naturgy Energy Group in four questions
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Naturgy runs an integrated gas and power business, with gas distribution networks, liquefied natural gas supply and electricity generation and retail, most of it concentrated in Spain. The structural case rests on its regulated distribution assets, which earn returns set by the state and give the cash flow a floor that merchant generation does not. The near-term question is whether the company can keep converting that base into earnings while European gas and power prices normalise, and the market is not yet pricing a premium for it: the stock trades at 14.1x trailing and 14.6x forward earnings on a 28.4bn EUR market cap. Those multiples are undemanding for a utility with a visible asset base, though the forward figure sitting slightly above trailing suggests analysts expect earnings to ease rather than grow. The data we have is thin on growth, margins and returns, so the thesis depends on confirming those in the filings before any position is sized.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Leverage elevated
Debt/Equity of 1.79 is high for an equity holder to absorb, especially with a regulated business that has limited room to pass through rate or capex shocks.
moderate
Insider ownership concentrated
Insiders hold 45.6% of shares, which limits free float and can make the stock thinly traded and sensitive to any change in controlling holder intentions.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 17, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Net margin of 10.7% and return on equity of 22.9% show the business turns sales into profit well.
Latest quarter earnings per share of 0.74 beat the 0.34 expected by a wide margin, a +117.4% surprise.
Trailing free cash flow of EUR 2.4B and a 3.8% dividend yield give income investors a sizeable cash return.
Why it could disappoint
Debt to equity of 1.79 leaves the balance sheet heavily geared, which limits room to absorb a downturn.
Revenue growth of +11.5% is well above the +4.9% five-year average, so the recent pace may not last.
The analysts' mean price target of EUR 30.68 sits at the share price with no upside, so the market already reflects expectations.
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Next results
Feb 18, 2027
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where NTGY.MC's valuation models land
Price
€31.10
Model fair value
€35.36
Model range
€22.53 to €50.71
Fair value €35.36
Price €31.10
The price sits inside the model range.
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