Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas · TSE · Japan
¥6235.00-0.02%
Market cap ¥2.04TNext earnings 2026-10-29Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 12% below our fair value
Price
¥6235.00
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
¥7107
Only one of our models could value this stock with confidence, so use it as a guide.
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Valued as a utility: Dividend discount and P/E comparison.
ACCE opinionTokyo Gas Co.,Ltd. (9531.T)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
¥5693
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 22 Oct 2026, 16:00 CEST.
Price used: ¥6235 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 08:30 CEST.
Models: Dividend discount and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
51
out of 100
P/E
13.7x
forward 23.0x
1-year return
+17.4%
Dividend yield
1.92%
Tokyo Gas Co.,Ltd. in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Tokyo Gas is Japan's largest city gas utility, supplying piped natural gas to households and businesses in the Kanto region and running LNG import terminals, along with power generation and an energy services arm. Its moat is the regulated, capital-intensive pipeline and LNG infrastructure, which is hard to replicate and gives it durable cash generation. The near-term story is the energy transition: hydrogen and e-methane projects, and a larger push into city gas-fired power that could lift earnings beyond the traditional gas business. At 4.0% revenue growth, an 8.2% operating margin and a 9.6% ROE, the business is steady rather than exciting, and the forward P/E of 23.0 sits well above the trailing 13.6, so the market is pricing in an earnings recovery or step-up that the reported numbers do not yet show. That gap is the first thing to test before deciding whether the name merits deeper work.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapse
Earnings are down 62.1% year over year while revenue grew 4.0%, so profit is shrinking faster than sales are growing. Operating margin of 8.2% is thin for a utility with 0.70 debt/equity.
moderate
Long-run revenue decline
Revenue has compounded at -4.8% over five years, and the latest quarter fell 15.3% sequentially. The one-year growth figure does not reverse the longer trend.
moderate
Price above ACCE target
The stock trades 9.5% above the ACCE price target of ¥5693.00, with the price at ¥6235.00. Forward P/E of 23.0 against trailing 13.7 implies earnings are expected to recover, which the data does not yet show.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-22 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 4.0% over the latest year, after a five-year average decline of 4.8% per year.
The latest quarterly earnings per share came in 68.6% above what analysts expected, at 180.22 against 106.90.
Analysts' mean price target of JPY 6538.33 sits 4.8% above the current share price.
Why it could disappoint
Forward P/E of 23.0x is well above the trailing 13.7x, implying analysts expect earnings to fall.
A net margin of 5.6% and return on equity of 9.6% leave little room for error at a share price of ¥6235.00.
The share price sits 9.5% above the ACCE price target of ¥5693.00, so the stock looks full on our numbers.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where 9531.T's valuation models land
Price
¥6235.00
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
¥7107
Model
Fair value
Upside
Dividend discount
P/E comparison
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