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NI
ACCE-researched

NiSource Inc Common Stock (NI) fair value

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas · NYSE · United States
$43.28-0.94%
Market cap $21.0BNext earnings 2026-10-28Updated Oct 18, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 6% above our fair value
Price
$43.28
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
$40.69
Only one of our models could value this stock with confidence, so use it as a guide.
Not used by alerts or posts.
Valued as a utility: P/E comparison and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionNiSource Inc Common Stock (NI)
Fair value (2 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$39.00
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 26 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $43.28 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: EV/EBITDA comparison and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
46
out of 100
Analysts
81% buy
16 covering
P/E
23.2x
forward 17.4x
1-year return
-1.3%
Dividend yield
1.35%

NiSource Inc Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

NiSource is a regulated gas and electric utility serving about 3.5 million customers across Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Kentucky and Maryland, earning returns on its distribution pipes, transmission lines and generating assets as set by state commissions. Its moat is the rate base itself: regulators allow it to earn a return on growing infrastructure, and utilities of this scale are hard to replicate. The growth driver is a multi-year electric grid and gas safety replacement program that expands that rate base, with data-center and industrial load growth in Indiana adding demand. Revenue grew 4.6% and the forward P/E of 18.3 sits below the trailing 21.9, which suggests earnings are expected to step up. Against that, ROE of 8.6% is thin for a company carrying this much capital spend, so the deeper look should focus on whether allowed returns and rate case outcomes support the investment plan.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 13, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Earnings collapse and score deterioration
    Earnings down 58.4% YoY; ACCE score fell 17 points in 90 days (61→44). QoQ revenue declined 42.6%. Material fundamental weakness.
  • high
    Negative free cash flow
    FCF of -$420M signals cash burn. For a utility, this is a red flag for capital intensity or operational stress.
  • high
    Elevated leverage with weak earnings
    Debt/Equity 1.72 combined with 58% earnings drop and negative FCF raises refinancing and coverage risk.
  • moderate
    Insider selling, no buying
    $2.26M in insider sales over last 10 disclosures with zero buys. Suggests insiders lack confidence.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • NiSource beat earnings expectations by 6.7% in the latest quarter, signaling operational execution and rate-base momentum.
Why it could disappoint
  • Free cash flow is negative at -$420M over the last 12 months, forcing the company to fund capex through debt and equity dilution.
  • Debt to equity of 1.72 is already elevated for a utility, limiting financial flexibility as interest rates remain high at 5.2%.
  • The valuation implies only 2.4% annual cash flow growth forever, leaving little room for error in a rising rate environment.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Oct 28, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where NI's valuation models land
Price
$43.28
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
$40.69
Model
Fair value
Upside
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bullish81% buy · 16 covering analysts
● Strong buy 9● Buy 4● Hold 3● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
Do politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+1.4%
1 month
+10.3%
3 months
-7.3%
6 months
-9.8%
YTD
+3.6%
1 year
-1.3%

SEC filings

Held by ETFs

ETFs we cover that hold NiSource Inc Common Stock among their largest holdings, by weight.

  • SPLV · Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF1.1% of the fund
Holdings as of 2026-10-24

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
28 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$35.49$36.26$39.42
26 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$39.00first publication$39.12
23 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$36.26$36.66$40.52
18 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$36.66$37.10$40.66
31 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$37.10$31.74$40.96
19 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$31.74first publication$42.30

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth28Value57Quality60Momentum40Total46
Valuation
Trailing P/E
23.2x
Forward P/E
17.4x
PEG
no data
P/B
1.97x
EV / Revenue
5.3x
Book value/sh
$19.97
Enterprise value
$36.2B
Profitability
ROE
8.6%
FCF yield
-2.00%
ROIC
3.0%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
1.72
Dividend yield
1.35%
Beta
0.55

Price

-0.8% · 1Y

Ask anything about NI

Answered from NiSource Inc Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 0% of peers
low 10.8x23.2xhigh 23.2x
ROEbetter than 17% of peers
low 8%9%high 23%
Div yieldbetter than 0% of peers
low 1.4%1.4%high 5.1%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
NI NiSource Inc Common Stock$43.28--23.2x8.6%6046
UN0.DE Uniper SE€43.70€5825% below10.8x14.7%4875
SRG.MI Snam€5.96€517% above18.1x12.4%7661
ATO Atmos Energy Corporation Common Stock$172.21$14618% above20.7x9.8%8157
9532.T Osaka Gas Co., Ltd.¥5790.00--15.0x7.9%5151
NTGY.MC Naturgy Energy Group€31.10€3512% below14.2x22.9%6374
9531.T Tokyo Gas Co.,Ltd.¥6235.00--13.7x9.6%5251

Sector report card

Where NI ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • Business Wire•Oct 16, 2026
    NiSource announces long-term agreement with Microsoft expected to increase customer savings and support Indiana’s economic growth
  • Business Wire•Oct 14, 2026
    NiSource to Release Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Host Conference Call on October 28
  • Business Wire•Sep 10, 2026
    BDC Report: $11 Billion in ‘Big Six’ Gas Pipeline Spending Drives 67% Surge in Pennsylvania Gas Utility Bills
4 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
October 2026
Oct 16
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-10-15
View on SEC →
August 2026
Aug 18
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-08-18
View on SEC →
Aug 18
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-08-14
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR