Heartland Express Inc. Common Stock (HTLD) fair value
Industrials · Trucking · NASDAQ · United States
$10.18-1.07%
Market cap $796MNext earnings 2026-10-20Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 17% below our fair value
Price
$10.18
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $12.20
Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
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Valued as a loss-making company: Analyst consensus.
ACCE opinionHeartland Express Inc. Common Stock (HTLD)
Fair value (2 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$10.00
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 23 Oct 2026, 01:53 CEST; previously $13.00 since 29 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $10.18 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Analyst consensus.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
34
out of 100
Analysts
17% buy
6 covering
P/E
0.0x
forward 21.1x
1-year return
+26.1%
Dividend yield
0.78%
Heartland Express Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Heartland Express runs a truckload carrier network across the continental US and into Mexico and Canada, moving freight in dry vans, flatbeds and temperature-controlled trailers for shippers that want dedicated capacity rather than spot-market exposure. The company's edge is operational rather than structural: a long-established driver base, a large fleet of relatively young tractors, and a balance sheet with little debt, which lets it ride out freight downturns that force leveraged competitors to park trucks. The near-term catalyst is a freight recovery: revenue fell 12.5% over the latest year and operating margin is negative at -4.6%, so any pickup in volumes or rates would flow through quickly to earnings. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 21.0 against a trailing P/E that is not meaningful, which means the market is pricing in a return to profitability rather than paying for current results. With a 28.1% gross margin, a score of 34/100, and no index membership, this is a name that needs a clear view on the freight cycle before it merits deeper work.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapsing
Revenue fell 12.5% year over year and earnings fell 66.1%. Operating margin is -4.6% and net margin -3.0%, so the business is now loss-making at the operating line.
high
Negative free cash flow
Free cash flow is -$66.9M. Losses plus cash burn on a $796M market cap is a weak setup regardless of the 0.21 debt-to-equity ratio.
moderate
Earnings missed badly
Latest quarter EPS came in 50.0% below expectations. Combined with the 7-point drop in ACCE Score since 90 days ago, the trend is deteriorating.
moderate
Insider selling outweighs buying
Last 10 disclosed insider transactions total $0.49M in sales against $0.03M in buys, a sell-heavy pattern from insiders who own 51.4% of the company.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 23, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-22 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Heartland has averaged revenue growth of +4.5% per year over five years, showing the business has grown through past freight cycles.
Shares trade at a 21.2x forward P/E, and the share count fell 1.1% last year, so each share claims a slightly bigger slice of earnings.
Only 17% of analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, but the analysts' mean price target of $12.40 sits 20.5% above the current price.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue fell 12.5% year over year, and the company lost money on a net margin of -3.0% in the latest reporting period.
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was -$67M, a free cash flow yield of -8.4%, meaning the business is burning cash rather than generating it.
The latest quarter missed expectations, with earnings per share of 0.01 against 0.02 expected, a -50.0% surprise.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where HTLD's valuation models land
Price
$10.18
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $12.20
Model
Fair value
Upside
Analyst consensus
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Quality
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