2 models fit Covenant Logistics Group Inc. Class A Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
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Valued as a mature, profitable company: P/E comparison and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionCovenant Logistics Group Inc. Class A Common Stock (CVLG)
Fair value (2 models)
$24.41
ACCE price target
$33.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST; previously $25.57 since 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 13 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST.
Price used: $29.19 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison and Dividend discount.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
19.6% above
-16.4% to fair value
ACCE score
45
out of 100
Analysts
80% buy
5 covering
P/E
2919.0x
forward 10.6x
1-year return
+46.2%
Dividend yield
0.94%
Covenant Logistics Group Inc. Class A Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Covenant Logistics runs full-truckload dry van and temperature-controlled trucking, plus a dedicated contract carriage and logistics business that moves freight for a fixed set of large shippers under multi-year agreements. The dedicated book is the piece worth underwriting: it produces steadier revenue than spot freight and is where most of the company's pricing power sits. Trailing earnings are close to zero (trailing P/E of 3,081 and ROE of 0.2%), so the case rests on normalization, with the forward P/E of 14.2 implying the market expects margins to recover. Revenue grew 9.9%, but the 2.8% operating margin against a 20.3% gross margin shows how much of the top line is consumed by equipment, fuel and driver costs before it reaches shareholders. The question for a deeper look is whether freight rates and utilization are turning up enough to lift the operating margin toward the mid-single digits, and whether the dedicated contracts are repricing at a rate that justifies that step-up.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Free cash flow deeply negative
FCF of -$33.9M against a $780M market cap, with debt/equity at 0.84. The company is burning cash while carrying leverage, which limits flexibility if freight demand softens.
moderate
Earnings declining despite revenue growth
Revenue grew 9.9% year over year while earnings fell 11.1%. Net margin of 0.3% and operating margin of 2.8% leave little cushion for further compression.
moderate
Score down over 90 days
The ACCE score fell from 52 to 48 over 90 days, with quality at 29 and growth at 40. Insiders sold $8.20M of stock and bought none in the last 10 disclosed transactions.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 9.9% year over year, ahead of the 6.8% average annual pace over five years.
Forward earnings multiple of 14.2x sits well below the sector median of 23.8x.
Why it could disappoint
Net margin of 0.3% and return on equity of 0.2% leave almost no profit from each dollar of sales.
Free cash flow over the last 12 months was negative at -$34M, with debt to equity at 0.84.
The stock trades 19.6% above the model fair value of $24.41, and 11.5% below the ACCE price target of $33.00.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 29, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where CVLG's valuation models land
Price
$29.19
Model fair value
$24.41
Model range
$11.11 to $37.71
Fair value $24.41
Price $29.19
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Dividend discount
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores