Marten Transport Ltd. Common Stock (MRTN) fair value
Industrials · Trucking · NASDAQ · United States
$11.78-4.23%
Market cap $961MNext earnings 2026-10-22Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 12% above our fair value
Price
$11.78
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$10.52
Model range
$5.31 to $18.88
Fair value $10.52
Price $11.78
3 models fit Marten Transport Ltd. Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Premium(i)
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionMarten Transport Ltd. Common Stock (MRTN)
Fair value (3 models)
$10.52
ACCE price target
$13.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 23 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST; previously $11.49 since 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 13 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 23 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
Price used: $11.78 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
12.0% above
-10.7% to fair value
ACCE score
33
out of 100
Analysts
33% buy
3 covering
P/E
78.5x
forward 22.8x
1-year return
+10.2%
Dividend yield
1.95%
Marten Transport Ltd. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Marten Transport runs temperature-controlled truckload service across the US, Mexico and Canada, with a dedicated refrigerated fleet hauling packaged and perishable food for grocers and food manufacturers, plus a smaller intermodal and expedited business. The structural case rests on that dedicated, contracted freight base, which is harder to replace than spot-market dry van volume. The near-term story is a freight cycle that has been slow to turn: revenue is down 2.8% and operating margin sits at just 2.4%, so any recovery in utilization or pricing would flow through to earnings quickly. Right now the stock trades at 85.6 times trailing earnings but 17.6 times forward, a gap that tells you the market expects a sharp earnings rebound, and the 1.7% return on equity shows how little the business earns on its capital today. This is a cyclical turnaround candidate with a weak current score of 35/100 and no index membership, so the question for a deeper look is whether the rebound in forward estimates is credible.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings falling sharply
Earnings are down 25.8% year on year while revenue fell 2.8%, so margins are compressing. Operating margin sits at 2.4% and net margin at 1.5%.
high
Negative free cash flow
Free cash flow is -$51.1M despite zero debt, so the business is consuming cash and the balance sheet is funding operations.
moderate
Weak returns on equity
Return on equity is 1.7%, and the trailing P/E of 85.6 sits far above the forward P/E of 21.4, which signals expected earnings recovery is doing much of the valuation work.
moderate
Score drifting lower
The ACCE score fell from 39 to 35 over 90 days, with the quality component at 38 and growth at 7.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Analysts' mean price target of $17.00 sits 32.4% above the share price, suggesting Wall Street sees room to run.
The company carries zero debt against equity, leaving it with no leverage risk in a cyclical trucking business.
The share price is 21.4x forward earnings, below the sector median of 23.8x, so it looks cheaper than peers on expected profit.
Why it could disappoint
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was negative at -$51M, meaning the business consumed cash rather than generating it.
Revenue fell 2.8% year over year and has averaged only +0.2% growth per year over five years, so the top line is stagnating.
Return on equity of 1.7% and a net margin of 1.5% show the company earns very little on shareholder money, well below what investors usually want.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where MRTN's valuation models land
Price
$11.78
Model fair value
$10.52
Model range
$5.31 to $18.88
Fair value $10.52
Price $11.78
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores