NewJersey Resources Corporation Common Stock (NJR) : juste valeur

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New Jersey Resources runs a regulated gas distribution utility serving roughly half a million customers in New Jersey, plus Clean Energy Ventures, a solar and storage developer, and an energy services arm that sells gas and solar to commercial and residential customers. Its moat is the regulated rate base: returns on infrastructure spending are set by the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities, which makes earnings far more predictable than a commodity business. The near-term driver is the pipeline replacement program, with capital spending ongoing and a growing solar portfolio adding contracted cash flow. At 14.3x trailing earnings and a 14.4% ROE, the valuation looks reasonable for a utility that is posting 16.8% revenue growth, though the 9.1% operating margin is thin and leaves little room for a bad winter or a rate case that goes the wrong way. The score of 59 out of 100 and the absence from any major index suggest the market hasn't re-rated the name, so the question for a portfolio manager is whether the clean-energy build-out justifies a closer look at the rate base and its regulatory calendar.