Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corporation Common Stock (CHMI) : juste valeur

Thèse ACCE

Cherry Hill Mortgage is a small mortgage REIT that invests mainly in agency residential mortgage-backed securities and a smaller book of credit and multifamily loans, funded through repo borrowing and managed externally by its adviser. The attraction is the spread: at a 9.0x forward P/E and a 13.5x trailing multiple, the market is paying little for earnings that have grown 27.6% on the top line, though a 7.2% ROE and a 96M market cap leave little room for error if funding costs move against the book. The near-term driver is the rate path, since a steeper curve and stable repo pricing would widen net interest spread and support the dividend, while any renewed rate volatility would hit book value first. The stock is not in any major index, which keeps coverage thin and can leave it mispriced, but it also limits liquidity. The question for the PM is whether the discount to forward earnings reflects a fair view of leverage and rate risk or an overlooked spread opportunity, and that needs a look at book value trends and the funding mix before anything else.