Valero Energy Corporation Common Stock (VLO) fair value
Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · NYSE · United States
$419.28-1.64%
Market cap $120.7BNext earnings 2026-10-22Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 201% above our fair value
Price
$419.28
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$139
Model range
$117 to $163
Fair value $139
Price $419
3 models fit Valero Energy Corporation Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Silver71
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionValero Energy Corporation Common Stock (VLO)
Fair value (3 models)
$139
ACCE price target
$450
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 23 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST; previously $148 since 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 23 Oct 2026, 01:53 CEST; previously $370 since 18 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST.
Price used: $419 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
200.6% above
-66.7% to fair value
ACCE score
85
out of 100
Analysts
45% buy
20 covering
P/E
9.5x
forward 8.2x
1-year return
+142.2%
Dividend yield
1.13%
Valero Energy Corporation Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
Overview
ACCE thesis
Valero operates ten refineries across the US, Canada, and the Caribbean, converting crude oil into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and other products for wholesale and retail distribution. The company benefits from structural advantages in refining capacity utilization and product mix optimization, particularly as global refining capacity has contracted since 2020 while demand remains steady. Near-term upside hinges on sustained crude-to-product spreads and the completion of its renewable diesel expansion, which should add high-margin output. Trading at a forward PE of 10.1 with an ROE of 27.6%, Valero is priced for a cyclical downturn despite refining margins remaining elevated relative to historical averages. The combination of tight refining supply, operational leverage on margins, and a capital-light business model makes the risk-reward asymmetric at current levels.