3 models fit Phillips 66 Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Silver71
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionPhillips 66 Common Stock (PSX)
Fair value (3 models)
$109
ACCE price target
$270
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST; previously $110 since 16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST.
Price used: $283 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
160.9% above
-61.7% to fair value
ACCE score
83
out of 100
Analysts
55% buy
20 covering
P/E
16.6x
forward 9.7x
1-year return
+108.5%
Dividend yield
1.70%
Phillips 66 Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
Overview
ACCE thesis
Phillips 66 operates refineries, chemical plants, and midstream pipelines that convert crude oil into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and specialty chemicals. The company benefits from structural tailwinds in energy infrastructure: US refining capacity has contracted by 2.5 million barrels per day since 2020 while demand remains stable, creating pricing power for the remaining efficient operators. Near-term, elevated crude-to-product spreads and strong chemical margins are driving cash generation well above historical averages. The forward PE of 10.2 reflects deep skepticism about energy durability, yet the company is returning capital aggressively: it repurchased $5.5 billion of stock in 2023 and raised its dividend 5% in early 2024. At current valuations, the market is pricing in a structural decline in refining demand that PSX's operational efficiency and capital discipline do not yet support.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Five-year revenue decline
5y CAGR of -8.1% masks cyclical refining dynamics. Verify sustainability of current +53.1% YoY rebound and whether it reflects structural recovery or temporary margin expansion.
moderate
Quality score lagging
ACCE Quality subscore at 58/100 is notably weak relative to Growth (100) and Moat (97). Investigate what operational or cash-conversion issues underlie this disconnect.
moderate
Insider selling concentration
Last 10 disclosures show $26.98M in sales and $0.00M in buys. No offsetting insider accumulation despite +22 score improvement in 90 days warrants attention.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Strong cash generation of $4.5B last twelve months supports a 4.1% free cash flow yield.
ROE of 23.5% and active share buybacks reducing dilution by 3.3% create shareholder value.
Why it could disappoint
Consensus fair value of $99.43 implies the stock is overvalued by 64.3% at current price.
Five-year revenue decline of 8.1% annually contradicts the unsustainable 53.1% recent spike.
Debt to equity of 0.63 limits financial flexibility if refining margins compress from cyclical highs.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 28, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
Walk me through this stock
Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.
PRO
Ask ACCE
Valuation
INVESTOR
Where PSX's valuation models land
Price
$283.18
Model fair value
$109
Model range
$88.25 to $133
Fair value $109
Price $283
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
Create a free account: 5 full stock pages a month, no card.
See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.
Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores