Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · TSE · Japan
¥1418.00-0.70%
Market cap ¥3.76TNext earnings 2026-11-11Updated Oct 24, 2026 · valuation updating
Our verdict
No fair value
We are missing the financial data our models need for this company. It will appear once the data arrives.
Not valued: there are no financial statements on file yet.
ACCE opinionENEOS Holdings, Inc. (5020.T)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
¥1506
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 22 Oct 2026, 16:00 CEST.
Price used: ¥1418 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 08:30 CEST.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
74
out of 100
P/E
5.4x
forward 14.3x
1-year return
+48.9%
Dividend yield
2.38%
ENEOS Holdings, Inc. in four questions
Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
Overview
ACCE thesis
ENEOS is Japan's largest oil refiner and fuel marketer, running refineries and a retail network of service stations under the ENEOS brand, alongside lubricants, petrochemicals, and electricity and gas retail. Its edge is scale: it refines a large share of Japanese domestic crude throughput and sits at the centre of the country's fuel distribution, which gives it pricing power and cost advantages over smaller domestic peers. Revenue growth of 18.7% and a 19.5% ROE are strong for a refiner, though commodity-linked earnings make year-to-year comparisons noisy. The stock trades at 5.5x trailing earnings against 14.4x forward, a gap that implies analysts expect earnings to fall from current levels, so the first question for a PM is whether that decline is already priced in or whether the cyclical peak is still ahead. Worth a deeper look to test refining margins and the durability of the forward earnings estimates against crude and product price assumptions.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Negative free cash flow
Free cash flow is reported at $-202,149,003,264, meaning the business is consuming cash despite a 5.6% net margin. Dividend and debt service depend on that cash position.
moderate
Long-term revenue decline
Five-year revenue CAGR is -7.8% even though revenue grew 18.7% year on year. The recent rebound may not reflect a sustained trend.
moderate
Earnings beat may not repeat
Q2 2026 EPS surprised by +358.9%, a figure far outside normal ranges. Single-quarter outliers of this size often reverse, so treat the earnings base with caution.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-22 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Analysts' mean price target of JPY 1665.00 sits 16.6% above the current share price of ¥1418.00.
The latest quarter's earnings per share beat expectations by 358.9%, at 154.64 against 33.70 expected.
Return on equity of 19.5% shows the company generating solid profit on the capital shareholders have put in.
Why it could disappoint
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was negative at -JPY 202.1B, so the business consumed cash rather than generating it.
Revenue has shrunk by an average of 7.8% a year over five years, so the top line has been declining for a long time.
A trailing P/E of 5.5x against a forward P/E of 14.4x suggests recent earnings are well above normal and may not repeat.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Walk me through this stock
Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.
PRO
Ask ACCE
Valuation
INVESTOR
Where 5020.T's valuation models land
Price
¥1418.00
Create a free account: 5 full stock pages a month, no card.
See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.
Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
+Score history: how each score moved over time
Analysts
Wall Street consensus
No analyst coverage yet.
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE
The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.
+Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
+Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
+ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street
Smart Money
PRO
In one line
Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.