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Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Discounted cash flow.
ACCE opinionPBF Energy Inc. Class A Common Stock (PBF)
Fair value (3 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$75.00
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $76.17 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, EV/EBITDA comparison, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
76
out of 100
Analysts
7% buy
14 covering
P/E
6.7x
forward 4.1x
1-year return
+123.4%
Dividend yield
1.39%
PBF Energy Inc. Class A Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
PBF Energy runs six oil refineries on the US East and Gulf Coasts and sells the gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and asphalt they produce through its own wholesale and terminal network. The structural case rests on owning scarce, complex refining capacity that can process cheaper heavy and sour crudes into higher-value products, which tends to widen the spread between crude and product prices when the market is tight. Revenue grew 56.2% over the latest reported period, and the stock trades at 7.4 times trailing earnings and 8.4 times forward earnings, a discount that leaves little room for a further fall in refining margins to be fully priced in. Return on equity of 23.2% alongside a thin 5.0% gross margin and 8.8% operating margin shows how much the business depends on throughput and spread rather than pricing power. The thesis needs checking on whether the revenue jump reflects durable margin or a cyclical spike, which is the first question for a deeper look.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Negative free cash flow
Free cash flow is -$783.2M while debt/equity sits at 0.55. Refiners burning cash through a cycle need a funding plan, and this size of outflow matters for position sizing.
moderate
Earnings falling despite revenue surge
Revenue grew 56.2% year over year but earnings fell 69.9%, with net margin at 3.9%. Thin refining margins are absorbing the top-line growth.
moderate
Heavy insider selling
Insiders sold $113.27M across the last 10 disclosed transactions with no buys. Short interest is 13.2% of float, so bearish positioning is elevated too.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 13, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-12 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 56.2% year over year, and the stock trades at only 8.4x forward earnings against a sector median of 15.8x.
The latest quarter beat expected earnings per share by 53.6%, with reported earnings of 6.22 against 4.05 expected.
The diluted share count fell 1.9% over the last fiscal year, and the stock pays a 1.3% dividend yield.
Why it could disappoint
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was negative $783M, a free cash flow yield of -7.8% at today's price.
Return on invested capital is -1.6%, so the business is not currently earning back what it spends to run.
Only 1 of 14 analysts rates the stock Buy or Strong Buy, and their mean target of $80.00 sits 5.9% below the $85.02 share price.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 29, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where PBF's valuation models land
Price
$76.17
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
$37.79
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
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