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5019.T
ACCE-researched

Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. (5019.T) fair value

Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · TSE · Japan
¥1540.00-0.55%
Market cap ¥1.85TNext earnings 2026-11-11Updated Oct 24, 2026 · valuation updating
Our verdict
No fair value
We are missing the financial data our models need for this company. It will appear once the data arrives.
Not valued: there are no financial statements on file yet.
ACCE opinionIdemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. (5019.T)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
¥1312
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 22 Oct 2026, 16:00 CEST.
Price used: ¥1540 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 08:30 CEST.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
81
out of 100
P/E
4.9x
forward 11.7x
1-year return
+47.2%
Dividend yield
2.32%

Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. in four questions

Plain answers, details below
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OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Idemitsu Kosan is one of Japan's largest oil refiners and marketers, running refineries and a branded fuel network across Japan, along with petrochemicals, lubricants and base oils. Its edge is scale in domestic refining and distribution, a position that is hard to replicate in a market where refinery capacity has been shrinking. Growth is coming from a 23.3% revenue increase, which points to strong pricing and volume in the fuel and chemicals businesses, though the gross margin of 12.7% shows how thin the spread is at this stage of the cycle. At a trailing P/E of 4.9 against a forward P/E of 11.8, the market is pricing in a sharp fall in earnings from current levels, and a 22.5% ROE on a 13.5% operating margin says the business is currently highly profitable. That gap between trailing and forward multiples is the first thing to test: if refining margins normalise, the forward figure is the one to underwrite.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 23, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Long-run revenue decline
    Revenue has shrunk at a 6.2% CAGR over five years, and the 23.3% year-on-year jump looks like a commodity-price rebound rather than durable growth.
  • moderate
    Leverage above comfort
    Debt/Equity of 1.37 is heavy for a refiner, and FCF is not reported, so debt service cannot be checked against cash generation.
  • moderate
    Price above ACCE target
    The stock trades 17.4% above the ACCE price target of ¥1312.00, with the current price at ¥1540.00.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-22 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Revenue grew 23.3% year over year, showing the business has recently regained real momentum after a weak run.
  • Return on equity of 22.5% suggests the company turns shareholder capital into profit efficiently.
  • The dividend yield of 2.3% pays shareholders while they wait, and the analysts' mean target sits 3.9% above the share price.
Why it could disappoint
  • Revenue has shrunk 6.2% a year on average over five years, so the recent jump may not last.
  • The trailing P/E of 4.9x against a forward P/E of 11.8x signals that current earnings are unusually high and may not repeat.
  • Debt equals 1.37 times equity and a net margin of 4.2% leaves little cushion if business conditions weaken.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Walk me through this stock

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where 5019.T's valuation models land
Price
¥1540.00
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Quality

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Wall Street consensus

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Smart Money

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In one line

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Last 90 days
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No trades filed
Last 180 days
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No trades filed
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Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Recent performance

1 week
-0.3%
1 month
-6.7%
3 months
+15.5%
6 months
+15.3%
YTD
+30.2%
1 year
+47.2%

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
22 Oct 2026, 16:00 CESTACCE price target¥1312first publication¥1549

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

This security trades in JPY. Exchange-rate movements can increase or reduce the result in your own currency.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth88Value92Quality53Momentum90Total81
Valuation
Trailing P/E
4.9x
Forward P/E
11.7x
PEG
0.00
P/B
no data
EV / Revenue
no data
Book value/sh
no data
Enterprise value
no data
Profitability
ROE
22.5%
FCF yield
no data
ROIC
no data
Health and risk
Debt / equity
1.37
Dividend yield
2.32%
Beta
no data

Price

+45.6% · 1Y

Ask anything about 5019.T

Answered from Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 100% of peers
low 4.9x4.9xhigh 50.1x
ROEbetter than 67% of peers
low 3%23%high 28%
Div yieldbetter than 17% of peers
low 1.4%2.3%high 7.5%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
5019.T Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd.¥1540.00--4.9x22.5%5381
BPCL.NS Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited₹286.95₹3159% below7.2x28.5%5470
PBF PBF Energy Inc. Class A Common Stock$79.25--6.7x23.2%5876
UGP Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (New) American Depositary Shares (Each representing one Common Share)$7.80$710% above12.5x19.8%4981
QUINENCO.SN QuinencoCLP 4575.00--11.3x10.0%5367
HINDPETRO.NS Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited₹340.80--50.1x2.6%2649
DCC.L DCC plc£64.35£4834% above22.4x10.4%3566

Sector report card

Where 5019.T ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…