3 models fit Unum Group Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Premium(i)Silver73
Valued as an insurer: Residual income, P/E comparison, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionUnum Group Common Stock (UNM)
Fair value (3 models)
$80.65
ACCE price target
$98.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 19 Oct 2026, 18:04 CEST; previously $79.58 since 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 26 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 19 Oct 2026, 18:04 CEST.
Price used: $90.28 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison, Dividend discount, and Residual income.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
11.9% above
-10.7% to fair value
ACCE score
57
out of 100
Analysts
69% buy
13 covering
P/E
21.1x
forward 8.5x
1-year return
+18.2%
Dividend yield
2.01%
Unum Group Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Unum Group sells group disability, life and dental coverage through employers, plus individual disability policies, and it is one of the largest disability insurers in the US. The competitive edge is scale and underwriting history in a niche where pricing discipline and claims data compound over decades, which makes it hard for a new entrant to match. The near-term case rests on earnings recovery rather than top-line growth: revenue is essentially flat at 0.3%, but the forward P/E of 9.8 against a trailing 21.7 implies the market expects a sharp rebound in reported profit. Why it is worth a look now is that the gap between trailing and forward valuation is wide, and ROE of 6.3% is modest enough that any improvement in claims experience or investment income would show up quickly in the numbers. The stock carries a 55/100 score and no index membership, so the debate is whether the earnings normalization is real before committing research time to it.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapse and score deterioration
Earnings down 16.2% YoY while ACCE score fell 13 points in 90 days (68→55). Growth stalled at +0.3% revenue YoY. Valuation disconnect: forward P/E 9.7 vs current 21.4 suggests market pricing in recovery.
high
Negative free cash flow
FCF negative $2.2B despite positive operating margins. Debt/Equity 0.37 is manageable, but cash burn at this scale limits financial flexibility and dividend sustainability.
moderate
Insider selling without offsetting buys
Last 10 disclosures show $0.99M in sales, zero buys. Modest signal, but combined with earnings miss and score drop, suggests insiders lack conviction.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-11 · prices to Oct 23, 2026