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Valued as a REIT (property company): Price to FFO and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionTPG RE Finance Trust Inc. Common Stock (TRTX)
Fair value (2 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$5.50
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $6.28 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: EV/EBITDA comparison and Price to FFO.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
43
out of 100
Analysts
83% buy
6 covering
P/E
11.3x
forward 11.1x
1-year return
-29.2%
Dividend yield
16.41%
TPG RE Finance Trust Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
TRTX is a commercial mortgage REIT that originates and holds senior floating-rate loans secured by institutional commercial real estate, funded largely through repo lines and securitizations. Its edge is the TPG platform behind it, which gives it deal flow and underwriting depth in transitional assets that smaller lenders often avoid, though the portfolio carries real office exposure that the market is right to scrutinize. Revenue shrank 11.6% and return on equity sits at 5.4%, so the earnings base is still under pressure from higher funding costs and a slower repayment cycle. Against that, the stock trades at 10.7 times trailing and 11.1 times forward earnings, a multiple that prices in continued credit stress rather than a recovery. The composite score of 41 out of 100 and the absence of index membership reflect weak momentum and a small float, so this is a name to examine closely for loan-book quality and dividend coverage before forming any view.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Shrinking revenue and earnings
Revenue fell 11.6% year over year and earnings fell 42.9%, with a 5-year revenue CAGR of -9.9%. Growth has been contracting for years, not just one quarter.
high
Heavy leverage on thin equity
Debt/equity of 3.08 and ROE of only 5.4% mean the equity base carries substantial borrowing risk while earning a modest return.
moderate
Score down sharply in 90 days
The ACCE score fell 25 points, from 66 to 41, with momentum scoring just 17/100. The deterioration is recent and broad.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 13, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was $84M, and the stock's free cash flow yield stands at 18.7%.
The dividend yield is 16.1%, and the trailing P/E of 10.7x is low for a company with a 43.9% net margin.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue fell 11.6% year over year, and has declined by an average of 9.9% per year over five years.
Return on equity of 5.4% and return on invested capital of 1.1% show the business earns little on the capital it uses.
Earnings per share missed expectations by 26.1%, coming in at 0.17 against 0.23 expected, and debt is 3.08 times equity.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 26, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
Walk me through this stock
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where TRTX's valuation models land
Price
$6.28
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
$10.66
Model
Fair value
Upside
EV/EBITDA comparison
Price to FFO
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores