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RWT

Redwood Trust Inc. Common Stock (RWT) fair value

Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage · NYSE · United States
$3.18+1.92%
Market cap $399MNext earnings 2026-11-03Updated Oct 20, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 68% below our fair value
Price
$3.18
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $9.88
Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
Not used by alerts or posts.
Treated as a REIT (property company). None of the usual models had enough data, so this uses Analyst consensus, Net asset value, and P/E comparison instead.
ACCE opinionRedwood Trust Inc. Common Stock (RWT)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
$3.20
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $3.18 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Analyst consensus, Net asset value, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
28
out of 100
Analysts
78% buy
9 covering
1-year return
-43.7%
Dividend yield
23.08%

Redwood Trust Inc. Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Redwood Trust is a mortgage REIT that originates and securitizes residential jumbo and non-QM loans, and services and invests in the resulting credit and mortgage-related assets. The firm's edge is its niche in loans too large or too non-standard for agency channels, where its origination and securitization machinery is the moat, though that franchise is cyclical and currently earning almost nothing: operating margin is 0.1%, ROE is 0.6%, and revenue fell 13.4%. The near-term catalyst is any stabilization in mortgage rates or spreads that revives securitization volumes, which would show up first in the top line and the return on equity. The stock screens as cheap on forward earnings at 6.2x, but at a score of 28/100 and no index membership, the market is pricing the earnings power as impaired rather than temporarily depressed. It merits a deeper look only if you have a view on the rate and spread cycle and can underwrite book value and dividend durability, which the headline multiple alone does not settle.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 5 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • severe
    Negative free cash flow
    Free cash flow is $-10,094,521,000 against a $382M market cap, a figure that signals heavy balance sheet strain rather than a routine timing gap.
  • high
    Revenue and earnings shrinking
    Revenue fell 13.4% year over year and earnings fell 52.6%, with revenue down 18.9% annually over five years.
  • high
    Heavy leverage
    Debt to equity sits at 22.56, and net margin of 2.2% with ROE of 0.6% leaves little cushion against that debt load.
  • high
    Elevated short interest
    Short interest is 23.4% of ownership, a level that points to meaningful bearish conviction among market participants.
  • moderate
    Score drifting lower
    The ACCE score dropped 3 points over 90 days, from 31 to 28, with quality at 36 and momentum at 17.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Analysts are broadly positive, with 78% (7 of 9) rating the stock Buy or Strong Buy.
  • The stock trades at a forward P/E of 3.0x, well below the sector median of 18.6x.
  • The share count fell 1.4% over the last fiscal year, so each share holds a slightly larger claim on the company.
Why it could disappoint
  • Revenue shrank 13.4% year over year, and has fallen 18.9% a year on average over five years.
  • Free cash flow over the last twelve months was negative $10.1B, so the business is not generating cash to cover its payouts.
  • A dividend yield of 23.7% is far above what the earnings can support, which raises the risk of a cut.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Nov 3, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

PRO

Ask ACCE

Valuation

INVESTOR
Where RWT's valuation models land
Price
$3.18
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $9.88
Model
Fair value
Upside
Analyst consensus
Net asset value
P/E comparison
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See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.

Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bullish78% buy · 9 covering analysts
● Strong buy 4● Buy 3● Hold 2● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
Do politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+4.6%
1 month
-14.5%
3 months
-35.4%
6 months
-44.3%
YTD
-42.5%
1 year
-43.7%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$3.20first publication$3.05

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth7Value50Quality36Momentum17Total28
Valuation
Trailing P/E
no data
Forward P/E
3.1x
PEG
no data
P/B
0.60x
EV / Revenue
131.2x
Book value/sh
$6.90
Enterprise value
$27.5B
Profitability
ROE
0.6%
FCF yield
no data
ROIC
-0.2%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
22.56
Dividend yield
23.08%
Beta
1.51

Price

-43.6% · 1Y

Ask anything about RWT

Answered from Redwood Trust Inc. Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
ROEbetter than 33% of peers
low -17%1%high 15%
Div yieldbetter than 83% of peers
low 12.8%23.1%high 32.4%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
RWT Redwood Trust Inc. Common Stock$3.18---0.6%3628
NREF NexPoint Real Estate Finance Inc. Common Stock$15.61$2742% below6.6x14.9%7252
BRSP BrightSpire Capital Inc. Class A Common Stock$3.66----3.7%5037
KREF KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. Common Stock$5.76----16.5%4645
TRTX TPG RE Finance Trust Inc. Common Stock$6.28--11.3x5.4%6743
FBRT Franklin BSP Realty Trust Inc. Common Stock$6.24--14.2x4.1%5842
ABR Arbor Realty Trust Common Stock$2.92--32.9x2.0%3932

Sector report card

Where RWT ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • Business Wire•Oct 13, 2026
    Redwood Trust Announces Date of Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results Webcast and Conference Call
  • Business Wire•Sep 14, 2026
    Bradley L. Radoff Urges Redwood Trust’s Board of Directors to Explore a Sale
  • Business Wire•Sep 11, 2026
    Redwood Trust Prices Upsized $185.0 Million Convertible Senior Notes Offering
6 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
October 2026
Oct 13
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-10-13
View on SEC →
September 2026
Sep 30
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-30
View on SEC →
Sep 30
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-30
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR