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ACCE opinionArbor Realty Trust Common Stock (ABR)
Fair value (2 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$2.40
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $2.92 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Dividend discount.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
32
out of 100
Analysts
0% buy
5 covering
P/E
32.9x
forward 11.7x
1-year return
-75.0%
Dividend yield
32.41%
Arbor Realty Trust Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Arbor Realty Trust is a mortgage REIT that originates and holds short-term bridge loans and longer-term structured finance loans on multifamily and other commercial properties, funded largely through its own balance sheet and securitizations. The business is a levered credit book, so its earnings track loan spreads, borrowing costs and credit losses rather than rents. The case for a closer look rests on a forward P/E of 11.7 against a trailing 31.1, which implies the market expects earnings to recover from a weak year. Against that, revenue fell 24.8%, return on equity is just 2.0% and operating margin is -12.7%, so the score of 31 out of 100 reflects a balance sheet still working through a difficult cycle. The number to test is whether that forward earnings estimate holds as multifamily loan delinquencies and refinancing pressure play out.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapse
Earnings fell 98.0% year over year and revenue dropped 24.8%, while the stock trades 21.7% above the ACCE price target of $2.40.
high
Heavy short interest
Short interest stands at 26.7% of the float, a large bet against the shares that could amplify volatility in either direction.
moderate
Leverage elevated
Debt to equity of 3.74 is high, and the operating margin of -12.7% sits against a net margin of +11.6%, so reported profit relies on items outside core operations.
moderate
Score deteriorating
The ACCE score fell 9 points over 90 days, from 40 to 31, with the quality and momentum components the weakest at 39 and 17.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 19, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Arbor beat earnings expectations last quarter, with earnings per share of 0.08 against 0.05 expected.
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was $396M, and the stock trades at a forward P/E of 11.7x.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue fell 24.8% year over year, far below its five-year average growth of 22.5% per year.
Return on equity is just 2.0% and return on invested capital is 0.9%, so the business earns very little on its capital.
Debt is 3.74 times equity, and the share count rose 2.0% last year, diluting existing shareholders.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 30, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where ABR's valuation models land
Price
$2.92
Model
Fair value
Upside
Dividend discount
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Quality
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