Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
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Valued as a REIT (property company): Price to FFO.
ACCE opinionINVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC Common Stock (IVR)
Fair value (2 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$6.63
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $5.54 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Price to FFO.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
65
out of 100
Analysts
17% buy
6 covering
P/E
3.6x
forward 3.9x
1-year return
-24.8%
Dividend yield
25.72%
INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Invesco Mortgage Capital is a mortgage REIT that holds agency residential mortgage-backed securities, funded largely through repurchase agreements and financed with a hedge book of interest rate swaps and other derivatives. The structural draw is spread income on agency MBS, which carry government-sponsored guarantees and so sidestep most credit risk, leaving the bet on prepayment speeds and the shape of the yield curve. The data points to a stock trading at 3.6 times earnings with a 14.1% return on equity and an 86.5% operating margin, which for a levered mortgage book mostly reflects how interest income is recognised rather than operating efficiency. The 557.7% revenue growth figure is an artefact of a low base and mark-to-market swings in reported interest and hedge results, so it should not be read as a growth signal. What matters for a deeper look is whether net interest spread holds up as funding costs and rate volatility move, and whether book value per share, not reported earnings, is stable enough to justify the discount to tangible equity the stock is priced at.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Leverage and short interest
Debt/Equity is 7.05 and short interest is 10.6% of float. Mortgage REIT leverage amplifies losses if spreads move against the book, and the shorts are betting on that.
moderate
Margin profile not reliable
Gross and operating margins of +100% and +86.5% reflect the REIT income structure rather than operating efficiency, so the 17 margin score says more than the headline figures.
moderate
Long-run revenue decline
Five-year revenue CAGR is -7.5%. The +557.7% year-on-year jump is a base effect and should not be read as sustained growth.
moderate
Score slipping over 90 days
ACCE score fell from 69 to 64 over 90 days, with Momentum at 17 of 100. Trend is weakening even though the price sits 16.4% below the ACCE price target of $6.63.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 19, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Shares trade at 3.6 times trailing earnings and 3.8 times forward earnings, a low multiple for a company with a steady profit stream.
The company earned a net margin of 86.1% and free cash flow of $157M over the last twelve months.
Earnings beat expectations last quarter, with earnings per share of 0.50 against 0.47 expected.
Why it could disappoint
Debt to equity of 7.05 means the company carries heavy borrowing relative to its equity, leaving little cushion if conditions turn.
Revenue has shrunk by 7.5% per year on average over five years, so the recent jump of 557.7% looks like a rebound rather than a trend.
The diluted share count rose 24.0% last fiscal year, which dilutes the value each existing shareholder owns.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 29, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where IVR's valuation models land
Price
$5.54
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $30.70
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