Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
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Valued as a loss-making company: Sales comps and Analyst consensus.
ACCE opinionTilly's Inc. Common Stock (TLYS)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
$4.90
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST; previously $4.75 since 1 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $4.14 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Analyst consensus and Sales comps.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
56
out of 100
Analysts
0% buy
1 covering
P/E
74.0x
forward 18.8x
1-year return
+145.0%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Tilly's Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Tilly's is a specialty retailer selling casual apparel, shoes and accessories for teens and young adults, with stores mainly in the western United States and an online channel. A mix of outside brands and its own labels gives it control over margin. The driver is better comparable sales and cost control. Revenue grew 8.1% with a 45.9% gross margin and a 5.0% operating margin, at 18.8x forward earnings.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Extreme leverage and weak equity
Debt/Equity 1.95 with ROE +2.3% and net margin +0.3%. High debt load on razor-thin profitability creates refinancing risk in a downturn.
high
Insider selling overwhelms buying
Last 10 disclosures: $10.28M in sales vs $0.02M in buys. Heavy insider exit despite recent score improvement suggests skepticism at the table.
moderate
Quality score collapse
ACCE Q score 37/100 reflects weak fundamentals. Earnings growth of +170% YoY is likely a recovery bounce from depressed prior year, not sustainable trend.
moderate
Structural revenue decline
5-year revenue CAGR -6.3% masks a struggling business. Recent +8.1% YoY and +31.1% QoQ are cyclical rebounds, not reversal of secular headwind.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-09 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Latest earnings beat expectations by 58.8%, suggesting the company is executing better than the market assumed.
Free cash flow yield of 10.3% is attractive relative to the current share price of $4.46.
Analyst mean price target of $5.50 implies 23.3% upside from the current $4.46 share price.
Why it could disappoint
Five-year average revenue declined 6.3% per year, indicating a structural business headwind despite recent 8.1% growth.
Net margin of 0.3% leaves almost no buffer, and negative return on invested capital of -11.0% shows the business destroys shareholder value.
Trailing P/E of 74.3x is extreme relative to forward P/E of 31.9x, reflecting earnings so close to breakeven that small swings cause huge valuation swings.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Dec 2, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
Walk me through this stock
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where TLYS's valuation models land
Price
$4.14
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $8.85
Model
Fair value
Upside
Analyst consensus
Sales comps
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
Tilly's $TLYS narrowed its per-share loss and grew revenue 15.9% in the quarter reported on June 3, 2026. ACCE score sits at 56 with Momentum at 97/100.
2026-09-03
Recommendation history, last 12 months
Date
Type
New
Previous
Price
18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST
ACCE price target
$4.90
$4.75
$4.60
1 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST
ACCE price target
$4.75
first publication
$4.79
Price
+145.0% · 1Y
Ask anything about TLYS
Answered from Tilly's Inc. Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.