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ZUMZ
ACCE-researched

Zumiez Inc. Common Stock (ZUMZ) fair value

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail · NASDAQ · United States
$14.11-1.81%
Market cap $216MNext earnings 2026-12-03Updated Oct 16, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Close to our fair value
Price
$14.11
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$14.70
Model range
$8.22 to $21.47
Fair value $14.70
Price $14.11
4 models fit Zumiez Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionZumiez Inc. Common Stock (ZUMZ)
Fair value (4 models)
$14.70
ACCE price target
$16.60
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $16.74 since 6 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST; previously $15.00 since 1 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $14.11 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, Dividend discount, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
4.0% below
+4.2% to fair value
ACCE score
43
out of 100
Analysts
0% buy
2 covering
P/E
20.4x
forward 16.0x
1-year return
-36.1%
Dividend yield
0.00%

Zumiez Inc. Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Zumiez is a specialty retailer selling skate, surf and streetwear clothing, shoes and accessories to teens and young adults through stores and online. A curated brand mix and a loyal customer base help, but mall traffic and teen spending are weak. The driver is a recovery in comparable sales. Revenue fell 2.5% and the operating margin is -0.6%, at 21.4x trailing and 29.9x forward earnings.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 14, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    ACCE score collapse
    Score fell 16 points in 90 days (59 to 43). Quality and Momentum components especially weak (33, 17). Signals deteriorating fundamentals.
  • high
    Operating margin deeply negative
    Operating margin -0.6% despite 36.1% gross margin. SG&A or other opex is consuming nearly all gross profit. Unsustainable at scale.
  • moderate
    Revenue decline with leverage
    Revenue down 2.5% YoY and -1.0% CAGR over 5 years. Debt/Equity 0.81 leaves little room if sales trend worsens further.
  • moderate
    Earnings recovery fragility
    Earnings up 49% YoY but from depressed base (net margin only 1.4%). Driven by cost cuts or one-time items, not revenue growth.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-08-31 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Free cash flow yield of 10.8% suggests the market is pricing in excessive pessimism about a business still generating $24M in cash.
  • Analyst consensus price target of $21.00 implies 45.0% upside from current $14.48 share price if estimates prove accurate.
  • Forward P/E of 16.5x is cheaper than trailing P/E of 21.0x, suggesting earnings are expected to improve from recent weakness.
Why it could disappoint
  • Revenue has declined 2.5% year over year and averaged negative 1.0% annually over five years, indicating structural headwinds.
  • Net margin of 1.4% and ROE of 4.4% show the business generates minimal profit and returns on shareholder capital.
  • Latest earnings missed expectations by 21.4%, and zero analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, signaling weak conviction.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Dec 3, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where ZUMZ's valuation models land
Price
$14.11
Model fair value
$14.70
Model range
$8.22 to $21.47
Fair value $14.70
Price $14.11
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bearish0% buy · 2 covering analysts
● Strong buy 0● Buy 0● Hold 2● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
Do politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+1.1%
1 month
+2.6%
3 months
-25.5%
6 months
-42.5%
YTD
-45.8%
1 year
-36.1%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CESTACCE price target$16.60$15.00$13.96
17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$14.70$16.74$14.44
6 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$16.74$16.49$13.29
2 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$16.49$16.74$13.40
1 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$15.00first publication$13.78
27 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$16.74$16.26$13.31
25 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$16.26$16.73$13.75
18 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$16.73$17.10$13.38
15 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$17.10$16.37$14.55
13 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$16.37$18.28$14.55

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth43Value73Quality38Momentum17Total43
Valuation
Trailing P/E
20.4x
Forward P/E
16.0x
PEG
0.40
P/B
0.76x
EV / Revenue
0.4x
Book value/sh
$17.60
Enterprise value
$341M
Profitability
ROE
4.5%
FCF yield
25.96%
ROIC
2.1%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
0.61
Dividend yield
0.00%
Beta
1.06

Price

-37.6% · 1Y

Ask anything about ZUMZ

Answered from Zumiez Inc. Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 20% of peers
low 0.0x20.4xhigh 22.1x
ROEbetter than 67% of peers
low -6%4%high 98%
Div yieldbetter than 83% of peers
low 0.0%0.0%high 1.6%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
ZUMZ Zumiez Inc. Common Stock$14.11$154% below20.4x4.5%3843
CURV Torrid Holdings Inc. Common Stock$2.15---0.0%2449
LE Lands' End Inc. Common Stock$9.76$666% above0.8x97.9%7551
DLTH Duluth Holdings Inc. Class B Common Stock$3.97--22.1x3.6%5066
SMCP.PA SMCP S.A.€4.32€1161% below13.7x1.9%5553
JILL J. Jill Inc. Common Stock$22.85$245% below12.6x20.8%6076
SFIX Stitch Fix Inc. Class A Common Stock$2.72----6.3%3930

Sector report card

Where ZUMZ ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • GlobeNewswire•Sep 10, 2026
    Zumiez Inc. Announces Fiscal 2026 Second Quarter Results
  • GlobeNewswire•Aug 27, 2026
    Zumiez Inc. to Report Fiscal 2026 Second Quarter Results
  • GlobeNewswire•May 21, 2026
    Zumiez Inc. to Report Fiscal 2026 First Quarter Results
40 filings
September 2026
Sep 28
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-18
View on SEC →
Sep 10
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-09-10
View on SEC →
Sep 10
10-QQuarterly reportPeriod 2026-08-01
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR