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NELLY.ST

Nelly Group AB (publ) (NELLY.ST) fair value

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail · Nasdaq Stockholm · Sweden
kr 37.80+0.21%
Market cap kr 1.1BNext earnings 2025-07-15Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 49% above our fair value
Price
kr 37.80
Model fair valueConfidence: good
kr 25.35
Model range
kr 16.85 to kr 42.10
Fair value kr 25.35
Price kr 37.80
3 models fit Nelly Group AB (publ) and they disagree: 0 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionNelly Group AB (publ) (NELLY.ST)
Fair value (3 models)
kr 25.35
ACCE price target
kr 38.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 23 Oct 2026, 11:04 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 23 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST.
Rating published on 23 Oct 2026, 11:04 CEST.
Price used: kr 37.80 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
49.1% above
-32.9% to fair value
ACCE score
48
out of 100
P/E
8.3x
forward 14.3x
1-year return
-62.6%
Dividend yield
0.00%

Nelly Group AB (publ) in four questions

Plain answers, details below
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OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Nelly Group runs a multi-brand online fashion retail business in the Nordics and beyond, selling through its own e-commerce platforms and a portfolio of brands including Nelly, Nelly.com and Boozt-adjacent fashion labels. Its edge is a high gross margin of 54.7% combined with a 36.1% return on equity, which points to a capital-light model with pricing power in a crowded category. Revenue is currently shrinking, down 4.3%, so the near-term story depends on whether margin discipline can hold while volumes stabilise. At a trailing P/E of 8.2 against a forward P/E of 14.3, the market is pricing earnings to fall, which makes the next few reporting periods the key test. The name is small (1.1B SEK market cap) and carries no index membership, so it warrants a deeper look for anyone who can underwrite the top-line recovery.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 23, 2026

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where NELLY.ST's valuation models land
Price
kr 37.80
Model fair value
kr 25.35
Model range
kr 16.85 to kr 42.10
Fair value kr 25.35
Price kr 37.80
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.

Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

No analyst coverage yet.
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
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Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Recent performance

1 week
+25.4%
1 month
+8.9%
3 months
+0.1%
6 months
-43.2%
YTD
-65.2%
1 year
-62.6%

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
23 Oct 2026, 11:04 CESTRatingOvervaluedfirst publicationkr 37.72
23 Oct 2026, 11:04 CESTFair valuekr 25.35first publicationkr 37.72
23 Oct 2026, 01:52 CESTACCE price targetkr 38.00first publicationkr 37.72

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

This security trades in SEK. Exchange-rate movements can increase or reduce the result in your own currency.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth7Value90Quality78Momentum17Total48
Valuation
Trailing P/E
8.3x
Forward P/E
14.3x
PEG
no data
P/B
2.30x
EV / Revenue
0.8x
Book value/sh
kr 14.71
Enterprise value
kr 986M
Profitability
ROE
36.1%
FCF yield
10.21%
ROIC
19.9%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
0.71
Dividend yield
0.00%
Beta
1.59

Price

-61.2% · 1Y

Ask anything about NELLY.ST

Answered from Nelly Group AB (publ) fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 60% of peers
low 0.0x8.3xhigh 74.0x
ROEbetter than 100% of peers
low -26%36%high 36%
Div yieldbetter than 100% of peers
low 0.0%0.0%high 0.0%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
NELLY.ST Nelly Group AB (publ)kr 37.80kr 2549% above8.3x36.1%7848
AKA a.k.a. Brands Holding Corp. Common Stock$10.15----25.5%2927
GFG.DE Global Fashion Group S.A.€0.50----17.2%3941
TLYS Tilly's Inc. Common Stock$4.44--74.0x2.3%3756
DLTH Duluth Holdings Inc. Class B Common Stock$3.97--22.1x3.6%5066
CURV Torrid Holdings Inc. Common Stock$2.15---0.0%2449
ZUMZ Zumiez Inc. Common Stock$14.37$152% below20.4x4.5%3843

Sector report card

Where NELLY.ST ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…