2 models fit Talanx AG and they agree: 2 of 2 land within 15% of the average. The price is below every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)Bronze52
Valued as an insurer: Residual income, P/E comparison, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionTalanx AG (TLX.DE)
Fair value (2 models)
€129
ACCE price target
€130
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 22 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 22 Oct 2026, 16:00 CEST.
Rating published on 22 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
Price used: €125 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison and Residual income.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
2.8% below
+2.9% to fair value
ACCE score
56
out of 100
P/E
12.4x
forward 10.8x
1-year return
+16.2%
Dividend yield
2.85%
Talanx AG in four questions
Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
Overview
ACCE thesis
Talanx is a German diversified insurer whose Hannover Re stake and primary P&C and life operations sit under one listed holding, giving it exposure to both global reinsurance cycles and direct retail and commercial lines. At 12.6x trailing and 10.9x forward earnings with a 20.4% return on equity, the stock is priced below what that profitability would normally command in the sector. The reported 21.6% revenue decline is the first thing to dig into before anything else, since it may reflect reinsurance premium cycling, currency translation, or a portfolio change rather than weaker underlying demand. The 8.3% operating margin is thin enough that a single large-loss year or reserve charge could move the earnings line sharply, so the balance sheet and loss-ratio trend deserve the deeper look. Worth opening the file if the revenue drop proves to be mechanical and the return on equity holds up through the next reporting cycle.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Revenue down sharply
Revenue fell 21.6% year on year and earnings fell 5.9%, a sharp top-line drop even though the 5-year revenue CAGR is +7.9%. Worth checking whether this reflects a one-off or a trend.
moderate
Heavy insider ownership
Insiders hold 76.7% of the shares, leaving only 16.0% institutional and a thin free float. That concentration limits liquidity and gives a small group outsized control.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Return on equity of 20.4% shows the business earns strong returns on the capital its shareholders have put in.
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached EUR 7.9B, giving the company real cash to return to shareholders.
The company beat earnings expectations last quarter, with EPS of 2.80 against 2.53 expected, a surprise of +10.7%.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue fell 21.6% year over year in the latest period, well below the company's usual pace of growth.
Net margin of 6.1% leaves little room for error if premiums or claims move against the company.
Analysts' mean price target of EUR 130.71 sits only +4.7% above the share price, limiting the upside they expect.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 12, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
Walk me through this stock
Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.
PRO
Ask ACCE
Valuation
INVESTOR
Where TLX.DE's valuation models land
Price
€125.30
Model fair value
€129
Model range
€126 to €132
Fair value €129
Price €125
The price is below the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Dividend discount
P/E comparison
Residual income
Create a free account: 5 full stock pages a month, no card.
See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.
Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
+Score history: how each score moved over time
Analysts
Wall Street consensus
No analyst coverage yet.
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE
The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.
+Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
+Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
+ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street
Smart Money
PRO
In one line
Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.