2 models fit Arch Capital Group Ltd. Common Stock and they agree: 2 of 2 land within 15% of the average. The price is below every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large discount(i)Gold86
Valued as an insurer: Residual income and P/E comparison.
ACCE opinionArch Capital Group Ltd. Common Stock (ACGL)
Fair value (2 models)
$138
ACCE price target
$106
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 19 Oct 2026, 18:04 CEST; previously $135 since 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $130 since 6 May 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 19 Oct 2026, 18:04 CEST.
Price used: $102 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison and Residual income.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
26.4% below
+35.8% to fair value
ACCE score
60
out of 100
Analysts
45% buy
20 covering
P/E
8.0x
forward 9.6x
1-year return
+16.3%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Arch Capital Group Ltd. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Arch Capital Group writes specialty property and casualty insurance and reinsurance, with its mortgage insurance and reinsurance franchises among its larger lines. Its edge is underwriting discipline across cycles, reflected in a 19.9% return on equity and a 26.6% operating margin, which leaves room to absorb a softer top line. Revenue fell 10.5% over the period in the data, so the thesis hinges on whether that decline reflects deliberate shrinking of unprofitable business or a real loss of share. At 7.8 times trailing and 9.6 times forward earnings, the stock prices in a fair amount of pessimism, and the score of 59 out of 100 says the case is mixed rather than compelling. It is worth a deeper look to test whether premium pullback is pricing discipline or demand weakness, and to see how the forward multiple reconciles with the earnings outlook.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Revenue and earnings decline
Revenue down 10.5% YoY and earnings down 7.1% YoY, with sequential revenue decline of 6.9% QoQ. Reversal of 14.1% five-year CAGR signals material deceleration.
high
ACCE score collapse
Score fell 10 points in 90 days (69 to 59). Momentum component (M:47) is weak relative to valuation (V:96), signaling deteriorating fundamentals.
moderate
Insider selling pressure
Last 10 disclosures show $1.09M in insider sales with zero buys. No material conviction signal from management during period of earnings weakness.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Arch trades at 7.5x trailing P/E, well below the 11.9x sector median, despite a 19.9% ROE.
The company generated $4.3B in free cash flow with a 13.2% yield, enabling 1.5% annual buybacks.
Five-year revenue growth averaged 14.1% annually, and the firm maintains a fortress balance sheet with 0.18 debt-to-equity.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue fell 10.5% year over year, signaling a sharp slowdown from the five-year trend.
Forward P/E of 9.8x implies consensus expects earnings growth to slow materially from current levels.
Consensus fair value of $135.42 requires 41.7% upside, pricing in a significant recovery that may not materialize.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 27, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where ACGL's valuation models land
Price
$101.69
Model fair value
$138
Model range
$116 to $157
Fair value $138
Price $102
The price is below the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
P/E comparison
Residual income
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores