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AIG
ACCE-researched

American International Group Inc. New Common Stock (AIG) fair value

Financial Services · Insurance - Diversified · NYSE · United States
$81.26-2.13%
Market cap $43.4BNext earnings 2026-11-03Updated Oct 21, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 20% below our fair value
Price
$81.26
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$102
Model range
$43.77 to $176
Fair value $102
Price $81.26
3 models fit American International Group Inc. New Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Discount(i)Gold80
Valued as an insurer: Residual income, P/E comparison, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionAmerican International Group Inc. New Common Stock (AIG)
Fair value (3 models)
$102
ACCE price target
$85.50
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST; previously $97.45 since 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $105 since 8 May 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST.
Price used: $81.26 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison, Dividend discount, and Residual income.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
20.1% below
+25.1% to fair value
ACCE score
55
out of 100
Analysts
36% buy
22 covering
P/E
15.2x
forward 8.5x
1-year return
+3.1%
Dividend yield
2.26%

American International Group Inc. New Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
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OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

AIG writes commercial property and casualty, life and retirement, and general insurance, with a large footprint in global commercial lines and a retirement business that sells annuities through its Corebridge stake and related platforms. The structural advantage is scale and distribution: a $41.4B market cap insurer with diversified underwriting across commercial and personal lines, where pricing discipline and reserve quality matter more than top-line growth. Revenue growth is essentially flat at 0.5%, so the case rests on margin and capital returns rather than expansion, and the 19.4% operating margin against a 7.2% ROE shows the equity base is heavy relative to earnings. The stock trades at 14.5x trailing and 8.5x forward earnings, a steep drop that the market is pricing as either a peak-earnings call or a sign of doubt about the forecast. Whether that gap closes depends on evidence that underwriting margins hold through the next cycle, and that the company converts its earnings into buybacks instead of retained capital.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Earnings decline amid revenue stagnation
    Earnings down 10.1% YoY while revenue grew only 0.5%. Five-year revenue CAGR is -22.0%, signaling structural headwinds in core business.
  • moderate
    Insider selling concentration
    Last 10 disclosed transactions show $18.1M in sales versus $0 in buys. Insiders are net sellers despite stock trading 27% below fair value estimate.
  • moderate
    ROE and profitability concerns
    ROE of 7.2% is weak for a financial services company. Net margin of 11.1% and operating margin of 19.4% lag historical insurance peer benchmarks.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • AIG trades at 8.8x forward earnings, well below the 11.8x sector median, suggesting meaningful upside.
  • Free cash flow yield of 18.3% and consensus fair value 26.5% above current price indicate substantial undervaluation.
  • Aggressive 13.2% share buybacks combined with 11.1% net margins show management returning capital while maintaining profitability.
Why it could disappoint
  • Revenue has contracted 22.0% annually over five years, signaling structural decline in core business.
  • ROE of 7.2% and ROIC of 5.0% fall well short of cost of capital, destroying shareholder value.
  • Only 36% of analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, indicating limited conviction among professionals.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Nov 3, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where AIG's valuation models land
Price
$81.26
Model fair value
$102
Model range
$43.77 to $176
Fair value $102
Price $81.26
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Dividend discount
P/E comparison
Residual income
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bearish36% buy · 22 covering analysts
● Strong buy 7● Buy 1● Hold 14● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
Do politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+0.6%
1 month
+7.5%
3 months
+2.8%
6 months
+8.1%
YTD
-5.0%
1 year
+3.1%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CESTFair value$102$97.45$81.88
21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CESTRatingUndervaluedfirst publication$81.88
18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$85.50$105$80.74
12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$97.45$111$77.04
5 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$111$113$74.93
1 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$113$111$75.27
29 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$111$115$74.17
26 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$115$116$74.82
15 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$116$80.84$75.33
29 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$80.84$81.67$76.41

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth19Value71Quality67Momentum63Total55
Valuation
Trailing P/E
15.2x
Forward P/E
8.5x
PEG
0.64
P/B
0.97x
EV / Revenue
1.8x
Book value/sh
$77.39
Enterprise value
$47.2B
Profitability
ROE
7.2%
FCF yield
7.63%
ROIC
5.0%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
0.22
Dividend yield
2.26%
Beta
0.53

Price

+2.9% · 1Y

Ask anything about AIG

Answered from American International Group Inc. New Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 50% of peers
low 8.0x15.2xhigh 20.2x
ROEbetter than 0% of peers
low 7%7%high 22%
Div yieldbetter than 33% of peers
low 0.0%2.3%high 3.9%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
AIG American International Group Inc. New Common Stock$81.26$10220% below15.2x7.2%6755
SLF Sun Life Financial Inc. Common Stock$80.81$5548% above18.5x13.1%7273
SLF.TO Sun Life FinancialC$113.08C$8239% above19.1x13.1%7270
HIG The Hartford Insurance Group Inc. Common Stock$139.45$15510% below9.8x22.1%8073
TLX.DE Talanx AG€126.90€1292% below12.4x20.4%6556
ACGL Arch Capital Group Ltd. Common Stock$102.69$13826% below8.0x19.9%8760
SLHN.SW Swiss Life Holding AGCHF 933.20CHF 59756% above20.2x19.4%6357

Sector report card

Where AIG ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • Business Wire•Oct 2, 2026
    AIG to Report Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results on November 3, 2026, and Host Conference Call on November 4, 2026
  • Business Wire•Oct 1, 2026
    AIG Appoints Turab Hussain Chief Risk Officer
  • Business Wire•Sep 21, 2026
    AIG Appoints Sierra Signorelli CEO of Americas and Global Personal Insurance
5 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
October 2026
Oct 16
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-16
View on SEC →
Oct 1
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-01
View on SEC →
Oct 1
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-01
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR