3 models fit The Hartford Insurance Group Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)Silver69
Valued as an insurer: Residual income, P/E comparison, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionThe Hartford Insurance Group Inc. Common Stock (HIG)
Fair value (3 models)
$155
ACCE price target
$140
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST; previously $151 since 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 21 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST.
Price used: $137 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison, Dividend discount, and Residual income.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
11.5% below
+13.0% to fair value
ACCE score
73
out of 100
Analysts
33% buy
24 covering
P/E
9.8x
forward 9.9x
1-year return
+9.2%
Dividend yield
1.72%
The Hartford Insurance Group Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
The Hartford sells commercial and personal property and casualty policies, group benefits (life, disability, dental), and a mutual fund and retirement business through its Wellesley and Hartford Funds units, with commercial lines and small-business coverage the largest engine. Its edge is underwriting discipline in a segment where pricing power is hard to fake: a 22.1% return on equity on a book that is growing 8.1% a year, with operating margin at 17.6%, says the company is earning real returns rather than buying growth with price cuts. The near-term driver is the commercial lines pricing cycle, where rate increases have been running ahead of loss trend, so premium growth and margin expansion can continue even if exposure growth slows. At a trailing P/E of 9.2 and a forward P/E of 9.5, the market is pricing little of that durability, which is the main reason to look closer. The open question is whether the current underwriting margin holds if catastrophe losses or reserve development turn against it, so that is where the deeper work should start.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Operating margin weakness
Operating margin of 17.6% lags gross margin of 37.9% by 20.3 percentage points, suggesting elevated operating costs relative to peers in diversified insurance.
moderate
Insider selling concentration
Last 10 disclosures show $13.76M in sales against $0M in buys. No offsetting insider accumulation despite stock trading near fair value.
moderate
Earnings growth deceleration
YoY earnings growth of 36.1% masks QoQ growth of only 0.5%, signaling sharp recent deceleration from prior-year comparisons.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Hartford trades at 9.1x trailing earnings, well below the 11.7x sector median, offering valuation cushion.
The company generated 15.7% free cash flow yield and returned 22.1% on equity last quarter.
Hartford repurchased 4.1% of shares while growing revenue 8.1% year over year and maintaining 14.9% net margins.
Why it could disappoint
Only 35% of analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, suggesting limited conviction among professionals.
Forward P/E of 9.4x trades near trailing despite modest 8.1% revenue growth, implying earnings may not accelerate.
Hartford's 13.5% return on invested capital trails the 22.1% return on equity, signaling capital allocation challenges.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 26, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where HIG's valuation models land
Price
$136.76
Model fair value
$155
Model range
$124 to $182
Fair value $155
Price $137
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Dividend discount
P/E comparison
Residual income
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Quality
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Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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