5 models fit TFI International Inc. Common Shares and they disagree: 1 of 5 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)Bronze49
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionTFI International Inc. Common Shares (TFII)
Fair value (5 models)
$113
ACCE price target
$123
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST; previously $140 since 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST.
Price used: $113 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
0.8% below
+0.8% to fair value
ACCE score
61
out of 100
Analysts
84% buy
19 covering
P/E
28.3x
forward 16.8x
1-year return
+26.4%
Dividend yield
1.65%
TFI International Inc. Common Shares in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
TFI International runs one of North America's largest truckload, less-than-truckload, logistics and package delivery networks, moving freight through its TL, LTL and Final Mile segments under brands such as Hercules, Kenan Advantage and Daseke-acquired flatbed operations. Its edge is scale and a deliberate strategy of buying undervalued carriers and folding them into a shared operating model, which has kept it growing faster than most of the trucking group. Revenue grew 12.4% over the last reported period, and the forward P/E of 16.8 sits well below the trailing 27.9, which suggests earnings are expected to recover after a soft freight cycle. With a 9.3% operating margin and 12.4% ROE, the business is earning acceptable returns but not yet at the level that would justify a premium, so the case rests on margin recovery as volumes firm. It is worth a deeper look to test whether that earnings rebound is credible and whether management can keep acquiring at disciplined prices.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Leverage elevated
Debt/Equity of 1.38 is high for a cyclical trucker. Trucking earnings swing with freight volumes, so a 1.38 ratio gives less room if the cycle turns.
moderate
Trailing P/E stretched
Trailing P/E is 28.1 against a forward P/E of 16.8. The gap implies earnings are expected to rise sharply, and the forecast may not hold if the freight cycle softens.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $984M, and the stock's free cash flow yield stands at 10.5%.
Analysts rating the stock Buy or Strong Buy make up 84% (16 of 19), and their mean price target sits 38.2% above the current price.
The company beat expectations last quarter, with earnings per share of 1.85 against 1.59 expected, a 16.4% surprise.
Why it could disappoint
Net margin is only 4.1% and return on invested capital is 5.6%, which leaves little room for error if freight rates weaken.
Debt to equity is 1.38, so the balance sheet carries heavy borrowing while the freight cycle and weak LTL pricing remain a risk.
Revenue grew 12.4% over the past year, well below the 23.8% yearly average over five years, so growth has slowed sharply.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 29, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where TFII's valuation models land
Price
$112.50
Model fair value
$113
Model range
$54.97 to $205
Fair value $113
Price $113
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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