Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
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Valued as a loss-making company: Sales comps and Analyst consensus.
ACCE opinionRXO Inc. Common Stock (RXO)
Fair value (2 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$29.00
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 9 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $28.75 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Analyst consensus and Sales comps.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
50
out of 100
Analysts
17% buy
18 covering
P/E
0.0x
forward 2500.0x
1-year return
+66.9%
Dividend yield
0.00%
RXO Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
RXO is a US truck brokerage that matches shippers with carriers and also offers last-mile delivery of heavy goods. Its technology platform and carrier network give it scale in a very fragmented market. The driver is a freight recovery that lifts volumes and margin together. Revenue grew 25.0%, but the gross margin is 14.9% and the operating margin is just 0.7%, so profit is thin and the debate is entirely about whether it can widen.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapse vs revenue growth
Revenue +25% YoY but earnings down 93.2%. Operating margin only 0.7% and net margin negative at -1.7%, signalling severe profitability deterioration despite top-line strength.
high
Negative free cash flow
FCF negative $8M despite $4.8B market cap and 25% revenue growth. Cash generation failure raises sustainability concerns in capital-intensive trucking.
high
Extreme valuation multiples
Forward P/E 2500, EV/EBITDA 210.1, and P/S 0.8 reflect near-zero earnings. Valuation is disconnected from fundamentals and leaves no margin of safety.
moderate
High short interest
25% short interest suggests material investor skepticism. Combined with earnings miss and negative FCF, this creates downside risk if sentiment shifts.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue accelerated to 25.0% year-over-year growth, well above the 11.3% five-year average, signaling strong freight demand recovery.
Latest earnings beat expectations by 50.0%, suggesting the company is executing better than consensus anticipated.
Debt to equity of 0.43 is conservative, leaving room to invest in growth or return cash once profitability normalizes.
Why it could disappoint
Net margin of -1.7% and negative free cash flow of -$8M show the business is unprofitable and burning cash today.
Forward P/E of 2500.0x is nonsensical because earnings are near zero, leaving no margin of safety on the $29.08 stock price.
Share count jumped 26.3% in the last fiscal year while ROE fell to -6.8%, destroying shareholder value through dilution.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 5, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where RXO's valuation models land
Price
$28.75
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $38.23
Model
Fair value
Upside
Analyst consensus
Sales comps
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Quality
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