4 models fit Saia Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 4 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Bronze40
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionSaia Inc. Common Stock (SAIA)
Fair value (4 models)
$207
ACCE price target
$356
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 19 Oct 2026, 19:04 CEST; previously $210 since 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 27 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 19 Oct 2026, 19:04 CEST.
Price used: $332 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
60.1% above
-37.5% to fair value
ACCE score
58
out of 100
Analysts
67% buy
21 covering
P/E
32.1x
forward 23.3x
1-year return
+13.8%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Saia Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
Overview
ACCE thesis
Saia runs a national less-than-truckload network, moving mid-sized shipments across about 40 states through a hub-and-spoke system of terminals, and it has been adding that footprint steadily. The case rests on operating leverage in a freight cycle that is turning: revenue growth of 17.1% has been paired with a 13.1% operating margin, a combination that suggests the network is filling and pricing is holding. The forward P/E of 23.5 against a trailing 32.3 implies the market expects earnings to catch up with sales, which makes the next few quarters of margin progression the key test. The score of 54/100 and the stock's absence from any major index reflect a name the market is still underweight, so the question is whether the earnings ramp is durable enough to justify a closer look. A 10.8% ROE is modest for the group and leaves little room for error if the freight recovery stalls.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Valuation premium to model
Model range $250-$420 is wide; downside scenario material.
moderate
Quality score weakness
ACCE Quality pillar at 32/100 is the lowest component. Earnings growth of +31.5% YoY may not be sustainable; 5-year revenue CAGR of only 5.0% suggests cyclicality.
moderate
Insider selling without buying
Last 10 disclosures show $4.36M in sales and $0.00M in buys. No offsetting insider confidence signal during recent rally.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue accelerated to 17.1% year-over-year growth, well above the 5.0% five-year average, signaling strong demand recovery.
The company generated $136M in free cash flow with minimal leverage at 0.10 debt-to-equity, enabling reinvestment without financial strain.
Why it could disappoint
At 32.5x trailing P/E and 23.6x forward P/E, the stock trades near sector median despite a 7.6% ROIC that lags cost of capital.
Consensus fair value sits 37.0% below the current $336.75 share price across all four valuation models, suggesting significant overvaluation.
The stock's 1.5% free cash flow yield is thin, and the price implies only 6.5% perpetual cash flow growth with no dividend buffer.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 29, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
Walk me through this stock
Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.
PRO
Ask ACCE
Valuation
INVESTOR
Where SAIA's valuation models land
Price
$332.14
Model fair value
$207
Model range
$131 to $266
Fair value $207
Price $332
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
Create a free account: 5 full stock pages a month, no card.
See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.
Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores