2 models fit XPO Inc. Common Stock and they agree: 2 of 2 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionXPO Inc. Common Stock (XPO)
Fair value (2 models)
$64.60
ACCE price target
$180
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 19 Oct 2026, 19:04 CEST; previously $67.04 since 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 25 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 19 Oct 2026, 19:04 CEST.
Price used: $183 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
183.6% above
-64.7% to fair value
ACCE score
55
out of 100
Analysts
80% buy
25 covering
P/E
53.9x
forward 27.9x
1-year return
+46.0%
Dividend yield
0.00%
XPO Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
XPO is a North American less-than-truckload (LTL) carrier that moves palletized freight through a network of cross-dock terminals, with a brokerage arm handling truckload and intermodal capacity for shippers. Its advantage is the density of its terminal network, which lowers the cost per shipment as volume rises and is hard for a new entrant to replicate in a market where terminal real estate and driver supply are constrained. Revenue growth of 13.2% and an operating margin of 12.3% show the network earning more per dollar of freight as it fills, and the forward P/E of 27.6 against a trailing 53.1 implies earnings are expected to rise sharply, so the thesis depends on that margin recovery arriving. At a $21.1B market cap, a 21.6% ROE and a 55/100 score, the name is not a clear bargain, but the gap between trailing and forward earnings is wide enough to justify a closer look at the margin bridge and the freight cycle before we spend more time on it.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Valuation disconnect with fundamentals
P/E of 54.0 vs forward P/E of 28.0 implies earnings growth deceleration.
high
Leverage elevated for cyclical sector
Debt/Equity 2.06 is high for trucking, a cyclical industry sensitive to freight demand. FCF of $474M provides some cushion but leaves limited room for downturns.
moderate
Score deterioration and growth deceleration
ACCE score fell 7 points in 90 days (62 to 55). Five-year revenue CAGR of 1.9% is weak; recent QoQ +12.4% may not sustain given cyclical headwinds.
moderate
Insider selling without offsetting buys
Last 10 disclosures show $2.13M in insider sales and $0.00M in buys. Absence of buying by insiders during a run-up warrants attention.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Recent earnings beat consensus by 14.1% and revenue grew 13.2% year over year, showing operational momentum.
Management returned 0.8% of shares through buybacks while generating 474M in free cash flow last year.
Analyst consensus rates 80% of the stock Buy or Strong Buy with a mean target 23.1% above current price.
Why it could disappoint
Consensus fair value is 59.4% below the current share price of 183.47, suggesting significant downside risk.
Debt to equity of 2.06 is high for a cyclical business with only 4.7% net margin and little earnings cushion.
Trailing P/E of 54.0x and forward P/E of 28.0x price in 10.1% perpetual cash flow growth, leaving no room for deceleration.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 29, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where XPO's valuation models land
Price
$183.21
Model fair value
$64.60
Model range
$59.01 to $70.19
Fair value $64.60
Price $183
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores