TAG Immobilien AG (TEG.DE) fair value

ACCE thesis

TAG Immobilien is a German residential landlord and developer, owning and managing rental apartments across Germany and selling units from its development pipeline. Its edge is scale in a fragmented market: a portfolio of roughly 2.1 billion euros in market value (its market cap sits at about the same level) built on a Germany-weighted rental base with inflation-linked rents and long-dated, low-cost financing. The near-term driver is margin, not top-line growth: revenue is only growing 3.2%, but a 33.0% operating margin on a 47.9% gross margin shows the rental book converts well when rents rise and vacancy stays low. The valuation looks strange on trailing numbers, with a trailing P/E of 62.4 against a forward P/E of 8.5, which tells you earnings are depressed or lumpy today and the market is pricing a recovery. The ROE of 1.6% is the reason to pause: it means the equity base is barely earning anything yet, so the case rests entirely on whether that earnings gap closes, and that deserves a deeper look at the balance sheet, leverage and disposal timing before anything else.