HIAG Immobilien Holding AG (HIAG.SW) fair value

ACCE thesis

HIAG is a Swiss-listed owner of commercial real estate, holding office, retail and mixed-use properties across Switzerland and earning rental income from them. The structural case rests on a rental portfolio that produces a 60.5% gross margin and a 49.8% operating margin, which points to long-dated leases and a cost base that scales well as rents come in. Revenue growth of 120.5% is a figure to treat with caution, since it likely reflects acquisitions and portfolio revaluation rather than organic rent growth, so the first task is to separate those. The trailing P/E of 8.5 sits well below the forward P/E of 16.3, which suggests earnings are expected to fall back toward a more normal level once the one-off gains roll out of the base, and that gap is the key thing to test. With a 13.0% ROE and a 1.3B CHF market cap, the name is small enough to be under-covered, but the number that needs checking first is how much of that trailing earnings is recurring rent versus property revaluation.