2 models fit Southwest Gas Holdings Inc. Common Stock (DE) and they agree: 2 of 2 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)Bronze48
Valued as a utility: Dividend discount, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Discounted cash flow.
ACCE opinionSouthwest Gas Holdings Inc. Common Stock (DE) (SWX)
Fair value (2 models)
$85.69
ACCE price target
$81.60
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 20 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST; previously $93.12 since 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 20 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST.
Price used: $91.15 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
6.4% above
-6.0% to fair value
ACCE score
55
out of 100
Analysts
100% buy
10 covering
P/E
22.1x
forward 17.4x
1-year return
+12.5%
Dividend yield
2.83%
Southwest Gas Holdings Inc. Common Stock (DE) in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Southwest Gas Holdings runs regulated natural gas distribution across Nevada, Arizona and California, alongside Centuri, a utility infrastructure services business that builds and maintains gas and telecom networks for utilities. The regulated utility earns allowed returns on a rate base that grows as the company replaces aging pipe, so capital spending translates fairly directly into earnings growth, and Arizona and Nevada population growth supports customer additions. The near-term swing factor is Centuri, where contract wins and margins have been uneven and revenue has contracted, which is the main reason the group reports a 9.6% revenue decline even as the utility remains steady. At 17.4x forward earnings against 21.6x trailing, the market is pricing in a meaningful recovery in reported profits, with a 6.8% return on equity leaving little room for error on the regulated side. The score of 51/100 reflects that tension, so the question for a deeper look is whether Centuri's backlog and the rate case outcomes justify the earnings step-up the forward multiple implies.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Free cash flow deeply negative
FCF is -$251.8M against a $6.3B market cap, with debt/equity at 0.89. The business is spending well beyond what it generates, so it depends on external funding.
moderate
Revenue shrinking over five years
Revenue fell 9.6% year over year and has a five-year CAGR of -10.1%. Earnings rose 20.9%, so the profit growth is not coming from the top line.
moderate
Score down six points in 90 days
The ACCE score dropped from 57 to 51 over 90 days, with growth at 35 and momentum at 47. The deterioration is recent and shows up across several sub-scores.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 20, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, with all 10 covering analysts on that side, and their mean target sits above the current price.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 17.4x against a sector median of 19.8x, so it looks cheaper than its peers on forward earnings.
A dividend yield of 2.9% pays shareholders while they wait for the stock to re-rate.
Why it could disappoint
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was negative at -$252M, so the business is spending more than it generates.
Return on equity of 6.8% and return on invested capital of 4.8% are thin returns on the capital the company uses.
Revenue fell 9.6% year over year, and the latest quarter's earnings per share missed expectations by 4.3%.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 4, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where SWX's valuation models land
Price
$91.15
Model fair value
$85.69
Model range
$78.01 to $93.36
Fair value $85.69
Price $91.15
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores