2 models fit NewJersey Resources Corporation Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Premium(i)Bronze48
Valued as a utility: Dividend discount, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Discounted cash flow.
ACCE opinionNewJersey Resources Corporation Common Stock (NJR)
Fair value (2 models)
$40.54
ACCE price target
$51.60
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST; previously $46.00 since 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
Price used: $53.16 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
31.1% above
-23.7% to fair value
ACCE score
60
out of 100
Analysts
63% buy
8 covering
P/E
14.4x
forward 14.9x
1-year return
+15.1%
Dividend yield
3.65%
NewJersey Resources Corporation Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
Overview
ACCE thesis
New Jersey Resources runs a regulated gas distribution utility serving roughly half a million customers in New Jersey, plus Clean Energy Ventures, a solar and storage developer, and an energy services arm that sells gas and solar to commercial and residential customers. Its moat is the regulated rate base: returns on infrastructure spending are set by the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities, which makes earnings far more predictable than a commodity business. The near-term driver is the pipeline replacement program, with capital spending ongoing and a growing solar portfolio adding contracted cash flow. At 14.3x trailing earnings and a 14.4% ROE, the valuation looks reasonable for a utility that is posting 16.8% revenue growth, though the 9.1% operating margin is thin and leaves little room for a bad winter or a rate case that goes the wrong way. The score of 59 out of 100 and the absence from any major index suggest the market hasn't re-rated the name, so the question for a portfolio manager is whether the clean-energy build-out justifies a closer look at the rate base and its regulatory calendar.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Negative free cash flow
FCF of -$239.7M alongside Debt/Equity of 1.58 means the company is funding its capex and dividend with borrowing. Leverage has room to become a constraint if credit conditions tighten.
moderate
Revenue growth not reaching earnings
Revenue grew 16.8% year over year but earnings grew only 6.9%, and the 5-year revenue CAGR is 0.8%. Recent top-line strength looks more volatile than durable.
moderate
Elevated short interest
Short interest stands at 6.7%, and the ACCE score slipped from 61 to 59 over 90 days. Shorts are positioned against the stock, which adds to volatility.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 15, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-14 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Analysts are bullish, with 63% (5 of 8) rating the stock Buy or Strong Buy, and their mean target sits above the current price.
The latest quarter beat expectations by a wide margin, with earnings per share of 0.11 against 0.06 expected.
The stock trades at 15.0x forward earnings, below the sector median of 19.8x, and pays a dividend yield of 3.9%.
Why it could disappoint
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was negative at -$240M, so the company depends on borrowing or issuing shares to fund its build-out.
Debt to equity of 1.58 leaves the balance sheet heavily geared, which limits room for error if rate case outcomes disappoint.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 18, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
Walk me through this stock
Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.
PRO
Ask ACCE
Valuation
INVESTOR
Where NJR's valuation models land
Price
$53.16
Model fair value
$40.54
Model range
$13.60 to $63.00
Fair value $40.54
Price $53.16
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
Create a free account: 5 full stock pages a month, no card.
See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.
Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores