3 models fit UGI Corporation Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)Silver73
Valued as a utility: Dividend discount, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Discounted cash flow.
ACCE opinionUGI Corporation Common Stock (UGI)
Fair value (3 models)
$43.41
ACCE price target
$41.00
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST; previously $37.21 since 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST.
Price used: $38.49 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
11.3% below
+12.8% to fair value
ACCE score
53
out of 100
Analysts
100% buy
4 covering
P/E
12.8x
forward 7.7x
1-year return
+15.6%
Dividend yield
3.89%
UGI Corporation Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
UGI Corporation distributes propane and other liquid fuels through AmeriGas and UGI International, and runs a regulated natural gas utility in Pennsylvania and surrounding markets, which gives it a mix of steady utility earnings and more cyclical retail fuel sales. The regulated utility base and the propane customer relationships are the structural anchors, though the propane business is weather-sensitive and its volumes have been under pressure. Revenue fell 4.5% over the period in the data, and operating margin is negative at -2.5%, so the story depends on whether earnings recover from here rather than on current top-line momentum. The shares trade at 12.5 times trailing earnings and 7.7 times forward earnings, a gap that implies the market expects a meaningful earnings rebound, and that expectation is worth testing before anything else. The score of 55 out of 100 and an ROE of 13.3% suggest the balance sheet and returns are respectable, so the question for a deeper look is whether the forward estimates are credible.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Leverage and thin operating margin
Debt/Equity is 1.58 and operating margin is -2.5% while net margin is +9.2%, so earnings rest on non-operating items rather than core profitability. Revenue fell 4.5% YoY.
moderate
Revenue contraction
Revenue declined 4.5% YoY while the 5-year revenue CAGR is only +2.1%, indicating weak top-line momentum despite a positive earnings print.
moderate
Score slipped over 90 days
The ACCE score fell from 57 to 55 over 90 days, with Growth at 19/100 as the weakest component.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 20, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Analysts are unanimous, with all 4 rating the stock Buy or Strong Buy, and their mean price target sits 13.6% above the share price.
The dividend yield of 4.0% and free cash flow of $390M over the last 12 months give shareholders a meaningful cash return.
Earnings beat expectations by 42.9% in the latest quarter, with EPS of -0.20 against -0.35 expected.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue fell 4.5% year over year, well below the 2.1% average annual growth over five years.
Return on invested capital of 4.5% is weak, and debt to equity of 1.58 leaves the balance sheet heavily geared.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 18, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where UGI's valuation models land
Price
$38.49
Model fair value
$43.41
Model range
$16.73 to $58.96
Fair value $43.41
Price $38.49
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores