AACCE Investments
ScreenerStocksIndicesPicksETFsBlogPricing

© 2026 ACCE Investments. All rights reserved.

ACCE Investments - Institutional-grade stock research for retail investors | BetaList
IndicesStocksETFsScreenerBlogGlossaryCompareMarket dataAdvisors
TermsPrivacyCookiesDisclaimerLegal noticeProfessional termsAboutContact
SW
ACCE-researched

Smurfit WestRock plc Ordinary Shares (SW) fair value

Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers · NYSE · United States
$41.85-1.37%
Market cap $22.0BNext earnings 2026-10-28Updated Oct 18, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 15% above our fair value
Price
$41.85
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$36.35
Model range
$19.53 to $55.67
Fair value $36.35
Price $41.85
3 models fit Smurfit WestRock plc Ordinary Shares and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Premium(i)Bronze55
Valued as a growth company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionSmurfit WestRock plc Ordinary Shares (SW)
Fair value (3 models)
$36.35
ACCE price target
$47.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST; previously $36.78 since 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 24 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST.
Price used: $41.85 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
15.1% above
-13.1% to fair value
ACCE score
44
out of 100
Analysts
100% buy
17 covering
P/E
43.1x
forward 11.8x
1-year return
-2.7%
Dividend yield
4.26%

Smurfit WestRock plc Ordinary Shares in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Smurfit WestRock makes corrugated packaging, the containerboard and box sheets that wrap a large share of food, beverage and consumer goods shipped in North America and Europe, so its earnings track industrial volume and paper pricing more than any single brand. The structural case rests on scale: the 2024 merger of Smurfit Kappa and WestRock created the largest corrugated producer in the world, and integration synergies, rather than demand growth, are the main lever for margin recovery. Revenue growth of 1.1% and a 5.5% operating margin leave little room for error, and the 2.7% return on equity shows the merged asset base is not yet earning its keep. The stock looks cheap on forward earnings at 12.0 times against a trailing 43.2 times, which means the market is pricing a sharp earnings rebound that has not yet shown up in reported numbers, so the question for a deeper look is whether synergy delivery and a box-demand recovery can close that gap. The score of 44 out of 100 and absence from major indices indicate the name needs a clear, company-specific reason to rerate before it earns a place in the portfolio.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 13, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Earnings collapse
    YoY earnings down 83.6% despite 1.1% revenue growth. Net margin compressed to 1.6%, signalling severe profitability deterioration.
  • high
    Valuation disconnect
    Current P/E of 43.5 vs forward P/E of 12.0 implies market expects sharp earnings recovery. High execution risk given current margin weakness.
  • moderate
    Quality score decline
    ACCE Quality subscore at 39/100, lowest of four pillars. Score fell 1 point in 90 days despite stable fundamentals, suggesting deteriorating operational metrics.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Free cash flow yield of 5.6% and dividend yield of 4.4% offer attractive income while the stock trades below consensus fair value.
Why it could disappoint
  • Net margin of 1.6% and ROE of 2.7% show the merged entity is destroying shareholder value, with ROIC at just 1.5%.
  • Share count surged 35.2% in the last fiscal year, diluting existing shareholders while the company struggles to grow revenue at only 1.1% year over year.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Oct 28, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

PRO

Ask ACCE

Valuation

INVESTOR
Where SW's valuation models land
Price
$41.85
Model fair value
$36.35
Model range
$19.53 to $55.67
Fair value $36.35
Price $41.85
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
Create a free account: 5 full stock pages a month, no card.

See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.

Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bullish100% buy · 17 covering analysts
● Strong buy 12● Buy 5● Hold 0● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
Do politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+1.7%
1 month
-10.0%
3 months
-13.8%
6 months
+4.7%
YTD
+8.2%
1 year
-2.7%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CESTRatingOvervaluedfirst publication$41.16
18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CESTFair value$36.35$36.78$41.16
15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$36.78$38.10$41.45
11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$38.10$43.92$41.29
30 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$43.92$44.95$45.07
28 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$44.95$44.41$46.41
26 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$44.41$44.96$46.00
24 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$47.00first publication$46.45
23 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$44.96$44.47$45.41
21 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$44.47$45.33$44.33

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

Get the full SW page, free

Every model, the scenarios, fair value history, AI notes and the four questions. 5 full stock pages every month on the free plan, no card.

Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the full page.

Snapshot

Growth19Value71Quality39Momentum47Total44
Valuation
Trailing P/E
43.1x
Forward P/E
11.8x
PEG
no data
P/B
1.35x
EV / Revenue
1.2x
Book value/sh
$34.43
Enterprise value
$37.9B
Profitability
ROE
2.7%
FCF yield
5.52%
ROIC
1.5%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
0.75
Dividend yield
4.26%
Beta
0.91

Price

-2.8% · 1Y

Ask anything about SW

Answered from Smurfit WestRock plc Ordinary Shares fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 0% of peers
low 0.0x43.1xhigh 43.1x
ROEbetter than 17% of peers
low -16%3%high 31%
Div yieldbetter than 50% of peers
low 0.0%4.3%high 5.7%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
SW Smurfit WestRock plc Ordinary Shares$41.85$3615% above43.1x2.7%3944
PKG Packaging Corporation of America Common Stock$248.92$13289% above30.5x14.9%5558
AMC.AX Amcor plcA$64.10A$4737% above18.2x9.4%4762
AMCR Amcor plc Ordinary Shares$46.28$3822% above19.0x9.4%4761
IP International Paper Company Common Stock$33.68----16.5%3529
BALL Ball Corporation Common Stock$65.81$4934% above18.3x17.2%5569
AVY Avery Dennison Corporation Common Stock$184.66$11955% above19.6x31.2%6464

Sector report card

Where SW ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • Business Wire•Sep 23, 2026
    Smurfit Westrock Announces Agreement to Acquire CMPC’s Chilean Containerboard and Corrugated Business
  • GlobeNewswire•Sep 4, 2026
    Sodexo : Monthly disclosure on share capital and voting rights August 31, 2026
  • PR Newswire•Sep 3, 2026
    MX.0 UK Launches in Sheffield, Bringing Manufacturer-Led Digital Transformation Event to the UK
6 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
September 2026
Sep 14
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-10
View on SEC →
Sep 14
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-10
View on SEC →
Sep 14
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-10
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR