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AMCR
ACCE-researched

Amcor plc Ordinary Shares (AMCR) fair value

Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers · NYSE · United States
$46.11-0.37%
Market cap $21.4BNext earnings 2026-11-04Updated Oct 19, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 21% above our fair value
Price
$46.11
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$37.99
Model range
$15.57 to $77.02
Fair value $37.99
Price $46.11
5 models fit Amcor plc Ordinary Shares and they disagree: 2 of 5 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Premium(i)Bronze57
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionAmcor plc Ordinary Shares (AMCR)
Fair value (5 models)
$37.99
ACCE price target
$45.50
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 19 Oct 2026, 18:04 CEST; previously $39.39 since 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $47.50 since 9 May 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 19 Oct 2026, 18:04 CEST.
Price used: $46.11 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
21.4% above
-17.6% to fair value
ACCE score
61
out of 100
Analysts
50% buy
14 covering
P/E
19.0x
forward 10.6x
1-year return
+12.1%
Dividend yield
5.74%

Amcor plc Ordinary Shares in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Amcor makes flexible and rigid plastic packaging, from pouches and films for food and beverage to bottles and containers for healthcare and home care brands. Its scale in consumer packaging gives it purchasing and manufacturing density that smaller converters struggle to match, and its multi-year contracts with large branded customers keep volumes sticky. The stock's forward P/E of 10.6 against a trailing 18.4 implies the market expects earnings to recover meaningfully, so the question for a PM is whether that recovery is credible given a 9.7% operating margin and a 9.4% ROE. Reported revenue growth of 25.9% is the headline number, but it should be checked against acquisition contribution and resin pass-through before it is read as organic momentum. On a 59/100 score with no index membership, this is a name for a deeper look at margin trajectory and integration, not a conclusion.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Earnings collapse amid revenue growth
    Earnings fell 11.7% YoY while revenue rose 25.9%, signalling margin deterioration or one-time charges. Operating margin of 9.7% is thin for the sector.
  • high
    Sequential revenue decline
    QoQ revenue down 5.2% despite strong YoY growth suggests deceleration or seasonal weakness. Raises questions about sustainability of 25.9% YoY print.
  • moderate
    Elevated leverage with thin margins
    Debt/Equity of 1.28 combined with 4.7% net margin leaves limited cushion. FCF of $1.5B is solid but must service substantial debt load.
  • moderate
    Quality score lagging valuation
    ACCE Quality score of 47/100 is well below the 60 composite, indicating operational or accounting concerns inconsistent with 9.6x forward P/E.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Revenue surged 25.9% year over year, suggesting strong demand and successful pricing actions.
  • Free cash flow yield of 7.8% and dividend yield of 6.2% offer attractive income to shareholders.
Why it could disappoint
  • Diluted share count jumped 45.6% last fiscal year, eroding earnings per share for existing holders.
  • ROIC of 3.5% and ROE of 9.4% fall well short of the 5.2% risk-free rate, destroying shareholder value.
  • Debt to equity of 1.28 combined with 4.7% net margins leaves little buffer for cost inflation.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Nov 4, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where AMCR's valuation models land
Price
$46.11
Model fair value
$37.99
Model range
$15.57 to $77.02
Fair value $37.99
Price $46.11
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.

Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Mixed50% buy · 14 covering analysts
● Strong buy 6● Buy 1● Hold 7● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
2 buys · 1 sell
Since May 14, 2026, 2 members
Average delay
14 days
From trade to public filing
Full trade list on ProDo politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+5.2%
1 month
+7.7%
3 months
+3.5%
6 months
+18.4%
YTD
+10.6%
1 year
+12.1%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
19 Oct 2026, 18:04 CESTRatingOvervaluedfirst publication$43.85
19 Oct 2026, 18:04 CESTFair value$37.99$39.39$43.85
18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$45.50$47.50$43.85
11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$39.39$44.40$41.72
21 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$44.40$44.92$41.90
14 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$44.92$45.64$42.32
12 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$45.64$46.65$43.00
2 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$46.65$47.17$45.89
31 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$47.17$73.05$46.67
23 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$73.05$74.20$48.53

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth52Value75Quality47Momentum70Total61
Valuation
Trailing P/E
19.0x
Forward P/E
10.6x
PEG
0.98
P/B
1.68x
EV / Revenue
1.4x
Book value/sh
$25.52
Enterprise value
$33.5B
Profitability
ROE
9.4%
FCF yield
5.75%
ROIC
3.4%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
1.28
Dividend yield
5.74%
Beta
0.58

Price

+13.3% · 1Y

Ask anything about AMCR

Answered from Amcor plc Ordinary Shares fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 50% of peers
low 0.0x19.0xhigh 43.1x
ROEbetter than 50% of peers
low -16%9%high 31%
Div yieldbetter than 100% of peers
low 0.0%5.7%high 5.7%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
AMCR Amcor plc Ordinary Shares$46.11$3821% above19.0x9.4%4761
AMC.AX Amcor plcA$64.10A$4737% above18.2x9.4%4762
SW Smurfit WestRock plc Ordinary Shares$42.43$3617% above43.1x2.7%3944
PKG Packaging Corporation of America Common Stock$248.92$13289% above30.5x14.9%5558
IP International Paper Company Common Stock$33.68----16.5%3529
BALL Ball Corporation Common Stock$65.81$4934% above18.3x17.2%5569
AVY Avery Dennison Corporation Common Stock$184.66$11955% above19.6x31.2%6464

Sector report card

Where AMCR ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • PR Newswire•Sep 29, 2026
    Amcor announces Board Chair transition
  • GlobeNewswire•Aug 31, 2026
    Pharmaceutical Packaging Market Report 2026-2036 Now Available - Forecasts Market Growth from $188.4B (2026) to $436.5B by 2036, Profiling Amcor, Gerresheimer, Schott, and 53 Other Key Players
  • GlobeNewswire•Aug 25, 2026
    Advanced Packaging for Food & Beverage Market to Reach USD 36.58 Billion by 2031, at a CAGR of 5.8% - MarketsandMarkets™
3 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
October 2026
Oct 8
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-06
View on SEC →
September 2026
Sep 29
ProxyProxy statementPeriod 2026-11-11
View on SEC →
Sep 17
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-15
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR