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IP
ACCE-researched

International Paper Company Common Stock (IP) fair value

Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers · NYSE · United States
$33.19-1.45%
Market cap $17.8BNext earnings 2026-10-28Updated Oct 19, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 26% below our fair value
Price
$33.19
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $45.09
Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
Not used by alerts or posts.
Valued as a loss-making company: Analyst consensus.
ACCE opinionInternational Paper Company Common Stock (IP)
Fair value (2 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$37.00
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 25 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $33.19 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Analyst consensus.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
29
out of 100
Analysts
83% buy
12 covering
P/E
0.0x
forward 11.7x
1-year return
-32.4%
Dividend yield
5.50%

International Paper Company Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
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OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

International Paper makes corrugated packaging (boxes and containerboard) and uncoated papers, and is one of the largest containerboard producers in North America. Its scale in containerboard mills and box plants gives it a durable position in e-commerce and food packaging demand, though that scale has not yet translated into earnings: revenue is shrinking at 2.2% and operating margin sits at 2.3% against a 29.6% gross margin, which points to heavy costs below the gross line. The near-term story rests on restructuring and mill closures reducing that cost base, and the valuation (10.5x forward earnings, a P/E that is not meaningful on trailing numbers) already prices in skepticism. With a 16.8B market cap, negative ROE of -16.5%, and a 25/100 score, the case for a deeper look depends on whether margin repair is visible in the next two or three quarters, not on the current figures.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 14, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Negative earnings and ROE
    Net margin is -14.2% and ROE is -16.5%, with earnings down 90.1% YoY. Free cash flow is -$159M against $16.8B market cap.
  • moderate
    Revenue shrinking year over year
    Revenue fell 2.2% YoY, though the 5-year CAGR of 7.2% suggests this is a recent reversal rather than a long-term trend.
  • moderate
    ACCE score deteriorating
    The score fell 11 points over 90 days, from 36 to 25, with the Moat sub-score at 17 and Quality at 35.
  • moderate
    Elevated short interest
    Short interest stands at 15.5% of float, and insiders sold $1.16M against $0.31M of purchases over the last 10 disclosed trades.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 16, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Analysts are broadly positive, with 83% (10 of 12) rating the stock Buy or Strong Buy.
  • The mean analyst price target of $45.82 sits 44.0% above the current share price of $31.81.
  • The company beat its latest earnings estimate, reporting a 200.0% surprise against expectations.
Why it could disappoint
  • Free cash flow over the last 12 months was negative at -$159M, so the business is not generating cash after investment.
  • Returns are negative, with return on equity at -16.5% and return on invested capital at -11.2%.
  • Revenue fell 2.2% year over year, and the diluted share count grew 49.1% in the last fiscal year, diluting existing holders.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Oct 28, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where IP's valuation models land
Price
$33.19
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $45.09
Model
Fair value
Upside
Analyst consensus
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bullish83% buy · 12 covering analysts
● Strong buy 7● Buy 3● Hold 2● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
0 buys · 1 sell
Since Apr 14, 2026, 1 member
Average delay
23 days
From trade to public filing
Full trade list on ProDo politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
-2.5%
1 month
-7.0%
3 months
-21.3%
6 months
+1.7%
YTD
-15.7%
1 year
-32.4%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
5 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$17.19$17.41$31.97
1 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$17.41$17.78$33.32
25 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$37.00first publication$35.70
21 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$17.78$17.99$34.53
14 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$17.99$18.27$34.36
12 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$18.27$18.65$34.29
3 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$18.65$19.16$36.46
31 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$19.16$19.68$39.31
26 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$19.68$19.94$40.68
24 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$19.94$19.60$41.46

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth7Value40Quality35Momentum32Total29
Valuation
Trailing P/E
0.0x
Forward P/E
11.7x
PEG
0.98
P/B
1.31x
EV / Revenue
1.2x
Book value/sh
$27.30
Enterprise value
$27.9B
Profitability
ROE
-16.5%
FCF yield
-0.89%
ROIC
-11.2%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
0.73
Dividend yield
5.50%
Beta
0.89

Price

-32.1% · 1Y

Ask anything about IP

Answered from International Paper Company Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 100% of peers
low 0.0x0.0xhigh 43.1x
ROEbetter than 0% of peers
low -16%-16%high 31%
Div yieldbetter than 67% of peers
low 0.0%5.5%high 5.7%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
IP International Paper Company Common Stock$33.19----16.5%3529
BALL Ball Corporation Common Stock$65.81$4934% above18.3x17.2%5569
AMCR Amcor plc Ordinary Shares$46.28$3822% above19.0x9.4%4761
AMC.AX Amcor plcA$64.10A$4737% above18.2x9.4%4762
SW Smurfit WestRock plc Ordinary Shares$42.43$3617% above43.1x2.7%3944
PKG Packaging Corporation of America Common Stock$248.92$13289% above30.5x14.9%5558
AVY Avery Dennison Corporation Common Stock$184.66$11955% above19.6x31.2%6464

Sector report card

Where IP ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • PR Newswire•Oct 15, 2026
    STATEMENT REGARDING POSSIBLE EMEA PACKAGING BUSINESS SALE
  • PR Newswire•Oct 14, 2026
    International Paper's EMEA Packaging Business Leaders to Host Capital Markets Day
  • PR Newswire•Oct 12, 2026
    International Paper Declares Quarterly Dividend
6 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
October 2026
Oct 8
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-10-08
View on SEC →
Oct 5
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-01
View on SEC →
Oct 5
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-01
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR