4 models fit Ball Corporation Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
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Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionBall Corporation Common Stock (BALL)
Fair value (4 models)
$49.04
ACCE price target
$67.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $60.76 since 9 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $70.00 since 13 May 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $64.76 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, Dividend discount, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
32.1% above
-24.3% to fair value
ACCE score
69
out of 100
Analysts
80% buy
15 covering
P/E
18.3x
forward 13.2x
1-year return
+30.3%
Dividend yield
1.25%
Ball Corporation Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Ball makes aluminum beverage cans, aerosol cans and aluminum bottles, and it is one of the largest can producers in the world, with most of its sales going to brewers and soft drink bottlers. The moat is the cost and logistics of a plant network built around aluminum, where a can line is hard to relocate and customers tend to stay put once a filling line is set up around a given can size. The near-term driver is volume recovery and pricing pass-through in beverage cans after a soft patch, with revenue growth of 19.7% in the latest data. At a forward P/E of 13.2 against a trailing 17.9, the market is pricing in a substantial earnings step-up, but the 9.2% operating margin leaves little room for input-cost slippage in aluminum. This is worth a deeper look if you want to test whether that earnings recovery is already in the numbers or still ahead of them.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Score deterioration and quality concerns
ACCE score fell 7 points to 63/100 in 90 days, driven by Quality (55) and Momentum (54) weakness. Earnings growth of 9.2% lags revenue growth of 19.7%, signaling margin pressure or one-time items.
moderate
Long-term revenue decline
5-year revenue CAGR is negative 5.0%, indicating structural headwinds despite recent 19.7% YoY bounce. Sustainability of current growth trajectory is unclear.
moderate
Elevated leverage with modest FCF
Debt/Equity of 1.31 is material. FCF of $380M covers debt service but leaves limited cushion for downturns or capital allocation flexibility in a cyclical packaging business.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue surged 19.7% year over year, and 80% of analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy.
Management repurchased 10.5% of shares while generating 380 million dollars in free cash flow.
Forward P/E of 12.9x trades below the sector median of 17.5x, suggesting undervaluation.
Why it could disappoint
Five year revenue declined 5.0% annually, indicating a structurally challenged business.
Consensus fair value is 48.60 dollars versus the current price of 58.46 dollars, a 16.9% overvaluation.
Debt to equity of 1.31 is elevated, limiting financial flexibility to weather commodity shocks.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 3, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where BALL's valuation models land
Price
$64.76
Model fair value
$49.04
Model range
$24.12 to $71.93
Fair value $49.04
Price $64.76
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores