4 models fit Sally Beauty Holdings Inc. (Name to be changed from Sally Holdings Inc.) Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large discount(i)Silver77
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionSally Beauty Holdings Inc. (Name to be changed from Sally Holdings Inc.) Common Stock (SBH)
Fair value (4 models)
$24.76
ACCE price target
$17.90
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $27.40 since 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 20 Oct 2026, 14:06 CEST.
Price used: $17.40 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, Dividend discount, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
29.7% below
+42.3% to fair value
ACCE score
74
out of 100
Analysts
60% buy
5 covering
P/E
9.1x
forward 7.8x
1-year return
+15.5%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Sally Beauty Holdings Inc. (Name to be changed from Sally Holdings Inc.) Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Sally Beauty sells professional-grade hair color, styling tools and salon supplies, through about 3,000 company-operated and franchised stores plus its Sally Beauty Supply and Beauty Systems Group distribution arms, mainly to salon professionals in the US, Europe and Latin America. Its moat is less about brand than about the professional channel: a salon that buys its color and tools from one distributor and stays with it is a sticky, repeat-purchase customer, and gross margin of 52.1% reflects that mix. Revenue is essentially flat (0.2% growth), so the thesis rests on margin and cash generation rather than top-line expansion, with the operating margin of 9.3% and a 23.5% ROE showing the business is still turning sales into profit efficiently. At 8.7 times trailing earnings and 7.4 times forward, the stock is priced for little growth, and the score of 69/100 and absence from any major index suggest it is under-followed, which is worth testing in a deeper review.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Heavy short interest
Short interest stands at 28.6%, so roughly 0.29 of the float is sold short. That level of bearish positioning amplifies moves in either direction.
high
Leverage stretched
Debt/Equity is 1.97, and with revenue growth of only +0.2% YoY and a 5y revenue CAGR of +1.0%, the balance sheet has little top-line growth to lean on.
moderate
Revenue growth stalled
Revenue grew just +0.2% YoY and +1.0% over five years, so the +25.0% earnings growth rests on margins rather than sales expansion.
moderate
Insider selling without buying
Insiders disclosed $0.97M of sales and $0.00M of buys across the last 10 filings, and insiders hold only +1.4% of shares.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 19, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $173M, and the stock yields 11.1% on that cash flow at today's price.
The company cut its diluted share count by 2.9% last fiscal year, so each remaining share owns a bigger slice of the business.
Trading at 7.4x forward earnings against a sector median of 17.6x, the shares look cheap if earnings hold up.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue grew just 0.2% over the past year, well below its 1.0% average over five years, so the top line is barely moving.
Debt to equity of 1.97 leaves the balance sheet heavily reliant on borrowing, which limits room for error in a weak year.
The reverse DCF implies cash flow growth of just 3.8% a year for five years, yet the 5.2% risk-free rate sets a high bar for equity returns.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 12, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
Walk me through this stock
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where SBH's valuation models land
Price
$17.40
Model fair value
$24.76
Model range
$8.83 to $40.25
Fair value $24.76
Price $17.40
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.
Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.
+Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
+Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
+Active 13D activist filings and top holders
Compare
Where it sits vs peers
News and Record
Press releases mentioning this company
Recent performance
1 week
+4.5%
1 month
+3.9%
3 months
+18.9%
6 months
+17.9%
YTD
+22.0%
1 year
+15.5%
SEC filings
Recommendation history, last 12 months
Date
Type
New
Previous
Price
20 Oct 2026, 14:06 CEST
Rating
Undervalued
first publication
$16.46
15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$24.98
$27.40
$15.90
12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST
ACCE price target
$17.90
first publication
$15.90
11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$27.40
$25.61
$15.90
4 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$25.61
$25.13
$16.24
24 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$25.13
$25.46
$16.96
16 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$25.46
$25.82
$16.01
13 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$25.82
$26.13
$15.96
5 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$26.13
$26.39
$16.47
31 Aug 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$26.39
$26.91
$16.55
Price
+14.8% · 1Y
Ask anything about SBH
Answered from Sally Beauty Holdings Inc. (Name to be changed from Sally Holdings Inc.) Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.
This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 100% of peers
low 9.1x9.1xhigh 62.5x
ROEbetter than 100% of peers
low -27%24%high 24%
Div yieldbetter than 67% of peers
low 0.0%0.0%high 3.0%
Peers
Prices Oct 23, 2026
Company
Price
Fair value
vs fair value
P/E
ROE
Quality
Score
SBHSally Beauty Holdings Inc. (Name to be changed from Sally Holdings Inc.) Common Stock