4 models fit National Vision Holdings Inc. Common Stock and they partly agree: 2 of 4 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionNational Vision Holdings Inc. Common Stock (EYE)
Fair value (4 models)
$9.31
ACCE price target
$18.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $11.16 since 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST.
Price used: $18.67 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
100.6% above
-50.1% to fair value
ACCE score
50
out of 100
Analysts
75% buy
12 covering
P/E
30.1x
forward 15.5x
1-year return
-27.1%
Dividend yield
0.00%
National Vision Holdings Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
National Vision Holdings runs optical retail under the America's Best, Eyeglass World and Walmart Vision Center banners, selling eyeglasses, contact lenses and eye exams, with a large share of sales coming from in-store optical services tied to insurance and vision plans. Its moat is modest: scale in optical retail and a 58.6% gross margin reflect pricing power on frames and lenses, but operating margin of 4.9% shows how much of that is absorbed by store labor, rent and marketing. Revenue growth of 2.5% is slow, so the investment case rests on margin recovery and cash generation rather than top-line acceleration. The stock screens expensive on trailing earnings at 28.6x but looks more reasonable at 15.6x forward, a gap that implies analysts expect earnings to rise meaningfully from a depressed base. With a 5.8% ROE and no index membership at a $1.4B market cap, the name sits outside much of the institutional mandate set, which can keep it cheap if the margin story fails to show up in reported results. It merits a deeper look to test whether operating margin can climb back from 4.9% and whether that forward multiple holds up.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Heavy short interest
Short interest is 27.9% of float, so a large share of holders are betting on a decline. Expect violent moves on any surprise in either direction.
high
Price well above model fair value
Shares trade 100.6% above the model fair value of $9.31, while the ACCE price target is $18.00. Current price already sits 3.7% above that target.
moderate
Thin margins and slowing top line
Operating margin is 4.9% and net margin 2.5%, with revenue growth of only 2.5% YoY against a 3.0% five-year CAGR. Earnings growth of 36.4% rests on a low base.
moderate
Leverage and quality score slipping
Debt to equity is 0.80 and the ACCE score fell 3 points over 90 days, from 53 to 50, with the momentum component at just 17.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 23, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last 12 months reached $73M, and the stock offers a 5.1% free cash flow yield.
Earnings beat expectations badly, with EPS of 0.17 against 0.09 expected, a surprise of +88.9%.
Why it could disappoint
The stock trades 100.6% above the model fair value of $9.31, and all four valuation models in the consensus are on file.
Return on invested capital is only 1.6%, and net margin is 2.5%, so the business earns thin returns on the money it uses.
Revenue grew just 2.5% year over year, below its 3.0% five-year average, while diluted share count rose 2.5%.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 4, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
Walk me through this stock
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where EYE's valuation models land
Price
$18.67
Model fair value
$9.31
Model range
$6.19 to $12.23
Fair value $9.31
Price $18.67
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores