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RIO
ACCE-researched

Rio Tinto Plc Common Stock (RIO) fair value

Basic Materials · Other Industrial Metals & Mining · NYSE · United States
$83.42-0.86%
Market cap $136.8BNext earnings 2026-07-28Updated Oct 24, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 18% below our fair value
Price
$83.42
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$102
Model range
$72.13 to $131
Fair value $102
Price $83.42
4 models fit Rio Tinto Plc Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Discount(i)Bronze47
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionRio Tinto Plc Common Stock (RIO)
Fair value (4 models)
$102
ACCE price target
$97.00
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 24 Oct 2026, 16:06 CEST; previously $109 since 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST; previously $97.00 since 17 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 24 Oct 2026, 16:06 CEST.
Price used: $83.42 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
18.2% below
+22.2% to fair value
ACCE score
73
out of 100
Analysts
50% buy
10 covering
P/E
11.4x
forward 12.1x
1-year return
+18.1%
Dividend yield
5.35%

Rio Tinto Plc Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Rio Tinto extracts and processes iron ore, copper, aluminium, and diamonds from mines across Australia, Africa, and North America, then sells these commodities to steelmakers, power utilities, and manufacturers. The company's competitive edge rests on its portfolio of low-cost, long-life assets in politically stable jurisdictions, which allows it to generate cash even when commodity prices fall below peers' breakeven points. Copper demand is accelerating as electrification and grid infrastructure investments drive consumption, while Rio's Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia and expansion projects in Australia position it to capture this growth. At a forward PE of 12.1x against an ROE of 19.3%, the stock trades at a meaningful discount to its cash generation power, and the company returned $8.4 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends in 2023 alone. The combination of structural tailwinds in copper, fortress-like balance sheet optionality, and valuation that does not yet price in a sustained higher commodity cycle makes this worth deeper analysis.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 12, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 1 flagAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • moderate
    Momentum score lagging
    ACCE Momentum subscale at 61/100, well below other pillars (G:88, V:79, Q:80). Suggests recent price strength may not be supported by fundamental momentum indicators.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • The company generated 19.6% net margins and 19.3% ROE, demonstrating strong operational efficiency and capital returns.
  • Revenue grew 15.5% year over year with $4.8B in free cash flow, supporting a 5.0% dividend yield.
Why it could disappoint
  • Current valuation implies only 3.6% annual cash flow growth over five years, leaving little room for disappointment.
  • Five-year revenue growth averaged just 5.3% annually, well below the recent 15.5% pace and likely unsustainable.
  • Free cash flow yield of 3.1% is modest relative to the 5.2% risk-free rate, offering limited margin of safety.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where RIO's valuation models land
Price
$83.42
Model fair value
$102
Model range
$72.13 to $131
Fair value $102
Price $83.42
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Mixed50% buy · 10 covering analysts
● Strong buy 4● Buy 1● Hold 4● Sell 0● Strong sell 1
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
Do politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
-7.6%
1 month
-12.4%
3 months
-8.6%
6 months
-16.3%
YTD
+4.2%
1 year
+18.1%

SEC filings

Recent ACCE blog coverage

  • $RIO ACCE Score Jumps 13 Points to 79 - What Drove It
    Rio Tinto's ACCE composite score moved from 66 to 79. Here's what the data says about Growth, Value, Quality, and Momentum behind the move.
    2026-08-04

Held by ETFs

ETFs we cover that hold Rio Tinto Plc Common Stock among their largest holdings, by weight.

  • LIT · Global X Lithium & Battery Tech21.9% of the fund
Holdings as of 2026-10-24

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
24 Oct 2026, 16:06 CESTRatingUndervaluedfirst publication$83.42
24 Oct 2026, 16:06 CESTFair value$102$109$83.42
18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CESTACCE price target$97.00$97.00$90.32
17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$109$112$90.21
12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$112$91.74$94.78
9 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$91.74$95.23$93.16
29 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$95.23$97.09$94.56
20 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$97.09$95.17$97.37
18 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$95.17$97.77$95.79
17 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$97.00first publication$95.79

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth88Value83Quality80Momentum39Total73
Valuation
Trailing P/E
11.4x
Forward P/E
12.1x
PEG
0.24
P/B
2.42x
EV / Revenue
2.8x
Book value/sh
$40.26
Enterprise value
$170.6B
Profitability
ROE
19.3%
FCF yield
3.52%
ROIC
9.6%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
0.38
Dividend yield
5.35%
Beta
0.66

Price

+18.3% · 1Y

Ask anything about RIO

Answered from Rio Tinto Plc Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 83% of peers
low 10.9x11.4xhigh 20.9x
ROEbetter than 50% of peers
low 16%19%high 28%
Div yieldbetter than 83% of peers
low 0.1%5.3%high 7.4%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
RIO Rio Tinto Plc Common Stock$83.42$10218% below11.4x19.3%8073
RIO.L Rio Tinto£62.31£7820% below10.9x19.3%8073
RIO.AX Rio Tinto (ASX listing)A$146.27A$1598% below13.4x19.3%8069
GMEXICOB.MX Grupo MexicoMXN 228.20MXN 18921% above15.2x28.4%9690
BHP.AX BHP GroupA$55.05A$584% below19.3x24.0%8870
BHP BHP Group Limited American Depositary Shares (Each representing two Ordinary Shares)$77.85$791% below20.9x24.0%8868
GLEN.L Glencore£5.38£427% above15.8x16.0%3559

Sector report card

Where RIO ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • Business Wire•Oct 13, 2026
    Rio Tinto releases third quarter 2026 production results
  • TMX Newsfile•Oct 9, 2026
    Video - CEO Clips: Coyote Copper: Exploring for a Major Copper Discovery in Arizona's Copper Triangle
  • GlobeNewswire•Oct 8, 2026
    Fieldstone Bio Selected for Rio Tinto and Founders Factory Mining Tech Accelerator
19 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
26 filings of 39
October 2026
Oct 14
6-KForeign current reportPeriod 2026-09-30
View on SEC →
Oct 1
6-KForeign current reportPeriod 2026-09-30
View on SEC →
September 2026
Sep 1
6-KForeign current reportPeriod 2026-08-31
View on SEC →
23 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR